The durability of vaccine-mediated immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the durations to breakthrough infection, and the optimal timings of booster vaccination are crucial knowledge for pandemic response. Here, we applied comparative evolutionary analyses to estimate the durability of immunity and the likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following vaccination by BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca), and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson/Janssen). We evaluated anti-Spike (S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels elicited by each vaccine relative to natural infection. We estimated typical trajectories of waning and corresponding infection probabilities, providing the distribution of times to breakthrough infection for each vaccine under endemic conditions. Peak antibody levels elicited by messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2 exceeded that of natural infection and are expected to typically yield more durable protection against breakthrough infections (median 29.6 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 10.9 mo to 7.9 y) than natural infection (median 21.5 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 3.5 mo to 7.1 y). Relative to mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2, viral vector vaccines ChAdOx1 and Ad26.COV2.S exhibit similar peak anti-S IgG antibody responses to that from natural infection and are projected to yield lower, shorter-term protection against breakthrough infection (median 22.4 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 4.3 mo to 7.2 y; and median 20.5 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 2.6 mo to 7.0 y; respectively). These results leverage the tools from evolutionary biology to provide a quantitative basis for otherwise unknown parameters that are fundamental to public health policy decision-making.

中文翻译：

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自然感染和疫苗诱导的免疫力对未来 SARS-CoV-2 感染的持久性


疫苗介导的 SARS-CoV-2 免疫力的持久性、突破性感染的持续时间以及加强疫苗接种的最佳时机是应对大流行的关键知识。在这里，我们应用比较进化分析来估计 BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech)、mRNA-1273 (Moderna)、ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) 和 Ad26.COV2 疫苗接种后随着时间的推移，免疫的持久性和突破性感染的可能性。 S（强生/杨森）。我们评估了每种疫苗相对于自然感染引起的抗 Spike (S) 免疫球蛋白 G (IgG) 抗体水平。我们估计了典型的减弱轨迹和相应的感染概率，提供了每种疫苗在流行条件下突破感染的时间分布。信使 RNA (mRNA) 疫苗 mRNA-1273 和 BNT1262b2 引发的峰值抗体水平超过了自然感染的水平，预计通常会比自然感染产生更持久的针对突破性感染的保护（中位数 29.6 个月；5% 至 95% 分位数 10.9 个月至 7.9 年）。自然感染（中位数 21.5 个月；5 至 95% 分位数 3.5 个月至 7.1 年）。相对于 mRNA-1273 和 BNT1262b2，病毒载体疫苗 ChAdOx1 和 Ad26.COV2.S 表现出与自然感染相似的峰值抗 S IgG 抗体反应，预计对突破性感染产生较低、短期的保护（中位 22.4 个月） 5% 至 95% 分位数为 4.3 个月至 7.2 岁；中位数分别为 20.5 个月和 5% 至 95% 分位数为 2.6 个月至 7.0 岁；这些结果利用进化生物学的工具，为对公共卫生政策决策至关重要的其他未知参数提供定量基础。