Flooding is the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climatic and socioeconomic change are expected to further increase the amount of loss in the future. To counteract this development, policymaking, and adaptation planning need reliable large-scale risk assessments and an improved understanding of potential risk drivers.

In this study, recent datasets for hazard and flood protection standards are combined with high resolution exposure projections and attributes of vulnerability derived from open data sources. The independent and combined influence of exposure change and climate scenarios rcp45 and rcp85 on fluvial flood risk are evaluated for three future periods centered around 2025, 2055 and 2085. Scenarios with improved and neglected private precaution are examined for their influence on flood risk using a probabilistic, multivariable flood loss model — BN-FLEMOps — to estimate fluvial flood losses for residential buildings in Europe.

The results on NUTS-3 level reveal that urban centers and their surrounding regions are the hotspots of flood risk in Europe. Flood risk is projected to increase in the British Isles and Central Europe throughout the 21st century, while risk in many regions of Scandinavia and the Mediterranean will stagnate or decline. Under the combined effects of exposure change and climate scenarios rcp45, rcp85, fluvial flood risk in Europe is estimated to increase seven-fold and ten-fold respectively until the end of the century. Our results confirm the dominance of socioeconomic change over climate change on increasing risk. Improved private precautionary measures would reduce flood risk in Europe on an average by 15%. The quantification of future flood risk in Europe by integrating climate, socioeconomic and private precaution scenarios provides an overview of risk drivers, trends, and hotspots. This large-scale comprehensive assessment at a regional level resolution is valuable for multi-scale risk-based adaptation planning.

洪水是欧洲代价最高的自然灾害。预计气候和社会经济变化将进一步增加未来的损失量。为了应对这种发展，政策制定和适应规划需要可靠的大规模风险评估和对潜在风险驱动因素的更好理解。

在这项研究中，最近的灾害和防洪标准数据集与来自开放数据源的高分辨率暴露预测和脆弱性属性相结合。在以 2025 年、2055 年和 2085 年为中心的三个未来时期评估暴露变化和气候情景 rcp45 和 rcp85 对河流洪水风险的独立和综合影响。使用概率论检查改进和忽视私人预防的情景对洪水风险的影响，多变量洪水损失模型 - BN-FLEMOps - 用于估计欧洲住宅建筑的河流洪水损失。

NUTS-3 级别的结果表明，城市中心及其周边地区是欧洲洪水风险的热点地区。预计整个 21 世纪不列颠群岛和中欧的洪水风险将增加，而斯堪的纳维亚和地中海许多地区的风险将停滞或下降。在暴露变化和气候情景 rcp45、rcp85 的综合影响下，到本世纪末，欧洲的河流洪水风险估计将分别增加 7 倍和 10 倍。我们的研究结果证实了社会经济变化对气候变化风险增加的主导地位。改进的私人预防措施将使欧洲的洪水风险平均降低 15%。通过整合气候来量化欧洲未来的洪水风险，社会经济和私人预防情景概述了风险驱动因素、趋势和热点。这种在区域层面决议的大规模综合评估对于基于风险的多尺度适应规划很有价值。