Hydropower will play an essential role in meeting the growing energy needs in Africa but will be affected by climate change. We assess future annual usable capacity and variability of supply for 87 existing hydropower plants in Africa on the basis of a multimodel ensemble of 21 global climate models and two emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We estimate near-future, mid-century and end-of-the-century impacts and assess the potential for connections within and across power pools to reduce changes in usable capacity and variability. We evaluate the potential synergies between hydropower, wind and solar resources in each power pool. We find that regional interconnection could mitigate some of the climate impacts on hydropower. Furthermore, variable renewable energy, especially solar power, could potentially compensate for usable hydropower capacity losses. Our work contributes to a better understanding of the climate-induced impacts on hydropower resources in Africa and potential risk mitigation opportunities.

水电将在满足非洲不断增长的能源需求方面发挥重要作用，但会受到气候变化的影响。我们根据 21 个全球气候模型和两种排放情景（代表性浓度路径 RCP 4.5 和 8.5）的多模型集合，评估非洲 87 个现有水电站的未来年度可用容量和供应可变性。我们估计近期、世纪中和世纪末的影响，并评估电力池内部和跨电力池的连接潜力，以减少可用容量和可变性的变化。我们评估每个电力池中水电、风能和太阳能资源之间的潜在协同效应。我们发现，区域互联可以减轻一些气候对水电的影响。此外，可变的可再生能源，尤其是太阳能，可以潜在地弥补可用水电容量的损失。我们的工作有助于更好地了解气候对非洲水电资源的影响以及潜在的风险缓解机会。