Casing deformation (CD) will seriously affect the fracturing progress and stimulation effect of shale gas. Taking 105 gas wells in the Luzhou shale gas area in southern Sichuan as an example, the CD prediction model was established by introducing the fracture operation curve diagnosis method to analyze the changes in net pressure and propagation mode during fracturing. The fracturing stage induced by CD is called the excited (ET) stage, and the fracturing stage that occurs during CD is called the CD stage. It is concluded that the change of net pressure and the propagation mode are coupled with each other. By natural fracture development, formation curvature and horizontal well trajectory, natural fractures and bedding have been active by high fracturing strength, or because of the frequent crossing-layer in single stage, local stress reverse, makes the net pressure decrease and makes the formation in strike-slip stress state to reverse fault stress state, liquid leak-off and blocked fracture propagation time are increased, thus inducing CD. According to the response law induced by CD, the CD pre-control mode is formed, and the CD pre-control technology is established to quantitatively evaluate the wellbore risk and optimize the fracturing operation order and time arrangement. The CD rate is reduced from 56% in the early stage to 20%, and the integrity of the wellbore is guaranteed to be 100%. The method has strong applicability in the field and can be further popularized.

套管变形（CD）将严重影响页岩气的压裂进度和改造效果。以川南泸州页岩气区105口气井为例，引入压裂作业曲线诊断方法，建立CD预测模型，分析压裂过程中净压力和扩展方式的变化。CD引起的压裂阶段称为激发（ET）阶段，CD期间发生的压裂阶段称为CD阶段。得出的结论是净压力的变化和传播模式是相互耦合的。受天然裂缝发育、地层曲率和水平井轨迹的影响，天然裂缝和层理由于压裂强度高，或单期穿层频繁，局部应力反转，使净压力降低，使地层处于走滑应力状态，逆转断层应力状态，增加液体渗漏和阻塞裂缝扩展时间，从而诱发CD。根据CD诱导的响应规律，形成CD预控模式，建立CD预控技术，定量评价井筒风险，优化压裂作业顺序和时间安排。CD率从前期的56%降低到20%，井筒完整性保证100%。该方法在本领域的适用性强，可进一步推广。根据CD诱导的响应规律，形成CD预控模式，建立CD预控技术，定量评价井筒风险，优化压裂作业顺序和时间安排。CD率从前期的56%降低到20%，井筒完整性保证100%。该方法在本领域的适用性强，可进一步推广。根据CD诱导的响应规律，形成CD预控模式，建立CD预控技术，定量评价井筒风险，优化压裂作业顺序和时间安排。CD率从前期的56%降低到20%，井筒完整性保证100%。该方法在本领域的适用性强，可进一步推广。