Although the Gulf of California is widely recognized as a region of high productivity and biodiversity, recent oceanographic and ecological changes have had a significant impact on its overall health. We review the relevant history of the economically important fishery based on large Humboldt (jumbo flying) squid (Dosidicus gigas) (>50 cm mantle-length and 10 kg body weight) that existed in the Guaymas Basin from the 1990′s until 2009, when a strong El Niño was accompanied by precocious spawning of squid at extremely small size (<30 cm mantle length and 0.1 kg). This short-lived phenotype is characteristic of the equatorial part of the species range and cannot be profitably fished. This phenomenon also occurred in conjunction with the strong 1997–1998 El Niño. Although rapid recovery of squid size and landings occurred after the 1997–1998 event, recovery after 2009–2010 El Niño was still incomplete when another strong El Niño occurred in 2015–2016. This last event has led to fixation of the small size-at-maturity phenotype in the Gulf of California — an effective poleward migration of the tropical phenotype. We also document years between El Niño 2009–2010 and 2015–2016 as being characterized by significant subsurface warming, leading to decreased productivity and restricted nighttime foraging opportunities for squid in the upper water column. These climatic trends have likely altered trophic webs throughout the Gulf of California, impacting many other taxa, including small pelagic fishes that are ecologically vital and commercially harvested in large quantities, as well as a suite of larger teleost fishes that are targeted by sport fishers. From these disparate data sources, collected and collated in coordination with regional resource users and environmental monitoring programs, an overall pattern emerges of long-term decline across multiple taxa. We also present evidence of a significant abatement of subsurface warming after 2015 and consider when – or if – the Gulf of California will return to a ‘normal’ state like that prior to 2010. Despite the potential for shifting to a cooler oceanic regime, the small phenotype for jumbo squid has persisted until present (2022), and the overall trajectory of ecological recovery is unclear. Integrated analyses of additional oceanographic and biological time-series, fisheries records, and other data will be necessary to identify critical processes and trajectories occurring in the Gulf of California.

尽管加利福尼亚湾被广泛认为是生产力和生物多样性高的地区，但最近的海洋和生态变化对其整体健康产生了重大影响。我们回顾了基于大型洪堡（巨型飞行）鱿鱼（Dosidicus gigas ）的经济重要渔业的相关历史) （地幔长度 > 50 厘米，体重 10 公斤）从 1990 年代到 2009 年存在于瓜伊马斯盆地，当时强烈的厄尔尼诺现象伴随着极小尺寸（地幔长度 < 30 厘米）的鱿鱼的早产和 0.1 公斤）。这种短命的表型是物种分布范围赤道部分的特征，无法进行有利可图的捕捞。这种现象也与 1997-1998 年的强厄尔尼诺现象同时发生。尽管在 1997-1998 年事件之后发生了鱿鱼大小和上岸量的快速恢复，但在 2009-2010 年厄尔尼诺现象之后的恢复仍然不完整，因为 2015-2016 年又发生了一次强烈的厄尔尼诺现象。这最后一个事件导致了加利福尼亚湾小尺寸成熟表型的固定——热带表型的有效极地迁移。我们还记录了 2009-2010 年和 2015-2016 年厄尔尼诺现象之间的年份，其特征是显着的地下变暖，导致生产力下降和上部水柱中鱿鱼的夜间觅食机会受到限制。这些气候趋势可能已经改变了整个加利福尼亚湾的营养网，影响了许多其他分类群，包括对生态至关重要且在商业上大量捕捞的小型中上层鱼类，以及运动钓鱼者所瞄准的一组较大的硬骨鱼。从这些不同的数据源中，与区域资源用户和环境监测计划协调收集和整理，出现了多个分类群长期下降的总体模式。我们还提供了 2015 年后地下变暖显着减弱的证据，并考虑了加利福尼亚湾何时或是否会恢复到 2010 年之前的“正常”状态。尽管有可能转向更冷的海洋状态，但巨型鱿鱼的小表型一直持续到现在（2022年），生态恢复的总体轨迹尚不清楚。需要对其他海洋学和生物时间序列、渔业记录和其他数据进行综合分析，以确定加利福尼亚湾发生的关键过程和轨迹。生态恢复的总体轨迹尚不清楚。需要对其他海洋学和生物时间序列、渔业记录和其他数据进行综合分析，以确定加利福尼亚湾发生的关键过程和轨迹。生态恢复的总体轨迹尚不清楚。需要对其他海洋学和生物时间序列、渔业记录和其他数据进行综合分析，以确定加利福尼亚湾发生的关键过程和轨迹。