Climate Policy ( IF 5.3 ) Pub Date : 2022-07-13 , DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2022.2086843 Antonina Scheer 1 , Moritz Schwarz 2 , Debbie Hopkins 3 , Ben Caldecott 4
ABSTRACT
Labour markets of oil-exporting regions will be impacted by a global transition to low-carbon energy as oil demand reduces to meet the aims of the Paris Agreement. Together with direct job losses in the oil and gas industry, indirect employment effects on other sectors should also be considered to ensure a just transition. We explore these direct and indirect employment impacts that could result from the low-carbon transition by analysing the effect of oil price fluctuations on the labour market of Alberta, a Canadian province economically reliant on oil sands extraction. We employ a mixed methods approach, contextualizing our quantitative analysis with first-hand experiences of career transitions using interviews with oil sands workers. We estimate a vector autoregression for province-wide insights and explore sector-specific dynamics using time series regressions. We find that the price discount on Canadian oil sands, which is determined by local factors like crude oil quality and pipeline capacity, does not significantly affect employment, while the global oil price does. This finding puts in doubt claims of long-term employment benefits from new pipelines. We find that at a provincial scale, oil price fluctuations lead to employment levels also fluctuating. Our analysis at the sectoral level shows that these job fluctuations extend beyond oil and gas to other sectors, such as construction and some service sectors. These findings suggest that the province’s current economic dependence on oil creates job precarity because employment in various sectors is sensitive to a volatile oil market. Furthermore, due to this sectoral sensitivity to oil price changes, workers in these sectors may be especially at risk in a low-carbon transition and warrant special attention in the development of provincial and national just transition policies. Transitional assistance can support workers directly, while economic diversification in Alberta can reduce reliance on international oil markets and thereby ensure stable opportunities in existing and new sectors.
Key policy insights
Decreased global oil demand is likely to create employment risks for workers in Alberta and other fossil fuel producing regions of the world.
Current economic dependence on oil sands extraction in Alberta leads to job precarity across sectors, including in those seemingly unrelated to extraction. Proactive economic diversification in anticipation of the low-carbon transition could reduce precarity by mitigating the effects of oil price fluctuations on employment levels in the long term.
Workers in sectors with higher oil price sensitivity (i.e. oil and gas, construction, professional services, manufacturing, accommodations, and food services sectors) could be prioritized in coordinated just transition policies at the local, provincial, and national scales.
The details of career transitions gleaned from our interviews suggest that tripartite social dialogue would contribute meaningfully to just transition policy development.
中文翻译：
谁的工作在艾伯塔省面临转型风险？了解石油资源丰富的加拿大省份的部门就业不稳定性
摘要
随着石油需求减少以实现《巴黎协定》的目标，石油出口地区的劳动力市场将受到全球向低碳能源转型的影响。除了石油和天然气行业的直接失业外，还应考虑对其他部门的间接就业影响，以确保公平过渡。我们通过分析石油价格波动对加拿大阿尔伯塔省劳动力市场的影响来探索低碳转型可能导致的这些直接和间接的就业影响，该省在经济上依赖油砂开采。我们采用混合方法，通过对油砂工人的采访，将我们的定量分析与职业转变的第一手经验联系起来。我们为全省范围内的见解估计向量自回归，并使用时间序列回归探索特定行业的动态。我们发现，由原油质量和管道容量等当地因素决定的加拿大油砂价格折扣不会显着影响就业，而全球石油价格则有。这一发现对新管道带来的长期就业利益的说法提出了质疑。我们发现，在省级范围内，油价波动导致就业水平也出现波动。我们在行业层面的分析表明，这些就业波动不仅限于石油和天然气，还延伸到了其他行业，例如建筑业和一些服务业。这些调查结果表明，该省 由原油质量和管道容量等当地因素决定的，对就业没有显着影响，而全球油价则有。这一发现对新管道带来的长期就业利益的说法提出了质疑。我们发现，在省级范围内，油价波动导致就业水平也出现波动。我们在行业层面的分析表明，这些就业波动不仅限于石油和天然气，还延伸到了其他行业，例如建筑业和一些服务业。这些调查结果表明，该省 由原油质量和管道容量等当地因素决定的，对就业没有显着影响，而全球油价则有。这一发现对新管道带来的长期就业利益的说法提出了质疑。我们发现，在省级范围内，油价波动导致就业水平也出现波动。我们在行业层面的分析表明，这些就业波动不仅限于石油和天然气，还延伸到了其他行业，例如建筑业和一些服务业。这些调查结果表明，该省 我们在行业层面的分析表明，这些就业波动不仅限于石油和天然气，还延伸到了其他行业，例如建筑业和一些服务业。这些调查结果表明，该省 我们在行业层面的分析表明，这些就业波动不仅限于石油和天然气，还延伸到了其他行业，例如建筑业和一些服务业。这些调查结果表明，该省当前对石油的经济依赖造成就业不稳定，因为各个部门的就业对动荡的石油市场很敏感。此外，由于行业对油价变化的敏感性，这些行业的工人在低碳转型中可能尤其面临风险，在制定省级和国家公平转型政策时需要特别注意。过渡性援助可以直接支持工人，而艾伯塔省的经济多元化可以减少对国际石油市场的依赖，从而确保现有和新部门的稳定机会。
主要政策见解
全球石油需求下降可能会给阿尔伯塔省和世界其他化石燃料生产地区的工人带来就业风险。
艾伯塔省目前对油砂开采的经济依赖导致各部门的工作不稳定，包括那些看似与开采无关的部门。预期低碳转型的积极经济多样化可以通过减轻石油价格波动对长期就业水平的影响来减少不稳定性。
在地方、省和国家范围内协调公正的过渡政策中，可以优先考虑对石油价格敏感度较高的部门（即石油和天然气、建筑、专业服务、制造、住宿和食品服务部门）的工人。
从我们的采访中收集到的职业转型细节表明，三方社会对话将对公正的转型政策制定做出有意义的贡献。
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