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Climatic legacy effects on the drought response of the Amazon rainforest
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2022-07-08 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16336 Johanna Van Passel 1, 2 , Wanda de Keersmaecker 3 , Paulo N Bernardino 1, 2 , Xin Jing 4 , Nikolaus Umlauf 5 , Koenraad Van Meerbeek 1, 2 , Ben Somers 1, 2
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2022-07-08 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16336 Johanna Van Passel 1, 2 , Wanda de Keersmaecker 3 , Paulo N Bernardino 1, 2 , Xin Jing 4 , Nikolaus Umlauf 5 , Koenraad Van Meerbeek 1, 2 , Ben Somers 1, 2
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Extreme precipitation and drought events are predicted to become more intense and more frequent over the Amazon rainforest. Because changes in forest dynamics could prompt strong feedback loops to the global climate, it is of crucial importance to gain insight into the response of tropical forests to these recurring extreme climatic events. Here, we evaluated the Amazon forest stability (resistance and resilience) to drought in the context of past dry and wet climatic events using MODIS EVI satellite imagery and cumulative water deficit anomalies. We observed large spatial differences in the occurrence of extreme climatic events from 1980 to 2019, with an increase in drought frequency in the central and northern Amazon and drought intensity in the southern Amazon basin. An increasing trend in the occurrence of wet events was found in the western, southern, and eastern Amazon. Furthermore, we found significant legacy effects of previous climatic events on the forest drought response. An extreme drought closely preceding another drought decreased forest resilience, whereas the occurrence of a recent drier-than-usual event also decreased the forest resistance to later droughts. Both wetter-than-usual and extreme wet events preceding an extreme drought increased the resistance of the forest, and with similar effects sizes as dry events, indicating that wet and dry events have similarly sized legacy effects on the drought response of tropical forests. Our results indicate that the predicted increase in drought frequency and intensity can have negative consequences for the functioning of the Amazon forest. However, more frequent wet periods in combination with these droughts could counteract their negative impact. Finally, we also found that more stable forests according to the alternative stable states theory are also more resistant and resilient to individual droughts, showing a positive relationship between the equilibrium and non-equilibrium stability dynamics.
中文翻译：
气候遗留效应对亚马逊雨林干旱反应的影响
预计亚马逊雨林的极端降水和干旱事件将变得更加强烈和频繁。由于森林动态的变化可能会引发对全球气候的强烈反馈循环，因此深入了解热带森林对这些反复出现的极端气候事件的反应至关重要。在这里，我们使用 MODIS EVI 卫星图像和累积缺水异常评估了过去干旱和潮湿气候事件背景下亚马逊森林对干旱的稳定性（抵抗力和恢复力）。我们观察到1980年至2019年极端气候事件发生的空间差异较大，亚马逊中部和北部干旱频率增加，亚马逊盆地南部干旱强度增加。亚马逊西部、南部和东部地区降雨事件的发生呈增加趋势。此外，我们发现以前的气候事件对森林干旱反应产生了显着的遗留影响。紧接着另一场干旱的极端干旱降低了森林的恢复能力，而最近发生的比平常更干旱的事件也降低了森林对以后干旱的抵抗力。极端干旱之前的超常湿润事件和极端潮湿事件都增加了森林的抵抗力，并且其影响大小与干旱事件相似，表明潮湿和干燥事件对热带森林的干旱响应具有相似大小的遗留影响。我们的结果表明，预计干旱频率和强度的增加可能会对亚马逊森林的功能产生负面影响。然而，更频繁的潮湿期与这些干旱相结合可能会抵消其负面影响。 最后，我们还发现，根据替代稳定状态理论，更稳定的森林也对个别干旱具有更强的抵抗力和弹性，显示出平衡和非平衡稳定性动态之间的正相关关系。
更新日期：2022-07-08
中文翻译：
气候遗留效应对亚马逊雨林干旱反应的影响
预计亚马逊雨林的极端降水和干旱事件将变得更加强烈和频繁。由于森林动态的变化可能会引发对全球气候的强烈反馈循环，因此深入了解热带森林对这些反复出现的极端气候事件的反应至关重要。在这里，我们使用 MODIS EVI 卫星图像和累积缺水异常评估了过去干旱和潮湿气候事件背景下亚马逊森林对干旱的稳定性（抵抗力和恢复力）。我们观察到1980年至2019年极端气候事件发生的空间差异较大，亚马逊中部和北部干旱频率增加，亚马逊盆地南部干旱强度增加。亚马逊西部、南部和东部地区降雨事件的发生呈增加趋势。此外，我们发现以前的气候事件对森林干旱反应产生了显着的遗留影响。紧接着另一场干旱的极端干旱降低了森林的恢复能力，而最近发生的比平常更干旱的事件也降低了森林对以后干旱的抵抗力。极端干旱之前的超常湿润事件和极端潮湿事件都增加了森林的抵抗力，并且其影响大小与干旱事件相似，表明潮湿和干燥事件对热带森林的干旱响应具有相似大小的遗留影响。我们的结果表明，预计干旱频率和强度的增加可能会对亚马逊森林的功能产生负面影响。然而，更频繁的潮湿期与这些干旱相结合可能会抵消其负面影响。 最后，我们还发现，根据替代稳定状态理论，更稳定的森林也对个别干旱具有更强的抵抗力和弹性，显示出平衡和非平衡稳定性动态之间的正相关关系。
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