Large-scale chemical depletion of ozone due to anthropogenic emissions occurs over Antarctica as well as, to a lesser degree, the Arctic. Surface climate predictability in the Northern Hemisphere might be improved due to a previously proposed, albeit uncertain, link to springtime ozone depletion in the Arctic. Here we use observations and targeted chemistry–climate experiments from two models to isolate the surface impacts of ozone depletion from complex downward dynamical influences. We find that springtime stratospheric ozone depletion is consistently followed by surface temperature and precipitation anomalies with signs consistent with a positive Arctic Oscillation, namely, warm and dry conditions over southern Europe and Eurasia and moistening over northern Europe. Notably, we show that these anomalies, affecting large portions of the Northern Hemisphere, are driven substantially by the loss of stratospheric ozone. This is due to ozone depletion leading to a reduction in short-wave radiation absorption, when in turn causing persistent negative temperature anomalies in the lower stratosphere and a delayed break-up of the polar vortex. These results indicate that the inclusion of interactive ozone chemistry in atmospheric models can considerably improve the predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface climate on seasonal timescales.

由于人为排放导致臭氧的大规模化学消耗发生在南极洲以及在较小程度上的北极地区。由于先前提出的（尽管不确定）与北极春季臭氧消耗的联系，北半球的地表气候可预测性可能会得到改善。在这里，我们使用来自两个模型的观测和有针对性的化学气候实验，将臭氧消耗的表面影响与复杂的向下动态影响区分开来。我们发现春季平流层臭氧消耗之后始终伴随着地表温度和降水异常，其迹象与正北极涛动一致，即南欧和欧亚大陆的温暖和干燥条件以及北欧的湿润。值得注意的是，我们证明了这些异常，影响北半球大部分地区的主要原因是平流层臭氧的损失。这是由于臭氧消耗导致短波辐射吸收减少，进而导致平流层下部持续出现负温度异常和极地涡旋延迟破裂。这些结果表明，在大气模型中包含交互式臭氧化学可以显着提高北半球表面气候在季节时间尺度上的可预测性。