Silviculture is among the human activities that contribute most to fragmentation and habitat loss. The comprehension of the effects of such activity on the environment is crucial for conservation. Here, we assessed the effects of silviculture on the local distribution of Contomastix vacariensis, an endemic lizard from southern Brazil. We used a single-season occupancy model in a Bayesian framework to estimate the occupancy probability of the species in 69 sites with different distances from silviculture areas. Our data showed a low probability of occupancy of C. vacariensis within a distance smaller than 1000 m from silviculture areas, while detection probability was negatively influenced by wind speed. This is the first work to demonstrate a gradual negative effect of exotic silviculture in lizards, which may be more intense inside planted areas and decrease as the distance from the exotic plantation increases. Such results may help delimit the size of conservation areas and management of exotic silviculture species within these areas. Studies with similar methods, considering the distance from the effects of environmental impacts, can be a helpful tool to make predictions based on the projected growth of silviculture in natural areas supporting threatened species.

中文翻译：

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危险有多近？距外来树木种植园的距离与地方性蜥蜴的占有率之间的关系

造林是导致破碎化和栖息地丧失最大的人类活动之一。了解此类活动对环境的影响对于保护至关重要。在这里，我们评估了造林对巴西南部特有蜥蜴Contomastix vacariensis当地分布的影响。我们使用贝叶斯框架中的单季占有率模型来估计该物种在距造林区不同距离的 69 个地点的占有率。我们的数据显示C. vacariensis的入住概率很低在距造林区小于 1000 m 的距离内，而检测概率受风速的负面影响。这是第一个证明外来造林对蜥蜴逐渐产生负面影响的工作，这种负面影响在种植区域内可能更加强烈，并且随着与外来种植园距离的增加而减少。这些结果可能有助于划定保护区的规模和这些地区内外来造林物种的管理。考虑到与环境影响影响的距离，采用类似方法进行的研究可能是一种有用的工具，可以根据支持受威胁物种的自然地区的造林预计增长进行预测。