Mast flowering and seeding is a well-known reproductive strategy of tree species with many ecological consequences regulating synchronous year-to-year flowering intensity variations at the population level. In contrast to flowering timing, the effects of climate change on flowering intensity across space, time, and species are largely unexplored. In this study, a long-term data set on flowering intensities for eight common tree species (Alnus glutinosa, Fagus sylvatica, Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus petraea, and Quercus robur) in Germany was reassembled to analyse flowering mechanisms and strategies by applying GAMLSS (Generalised Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape) models together with climatic data (temperature, precipitation, and drought) and various time-lagged effects. All species showed increasing flowering intensities in the period 1954–2019. The flowering intensity of Larix and Pinus differed significantly across their respective ecological provenances. Time series revealed higher synchrony among broadleaf than conifer species, although correlation coefficients of both their flowering intensities generally increased over time. GAMLSS modelling mainly explained flowering intensities well, with R² ranging between 0.58 (Pseudotsuga) and 0.25 (Alnus). Flowering intensity of almost all species was significantly influenced by flowering in previous years, indicating autocorrelative influences pointing to resource depletion and accumulation. Growing season temperature was modelled to be the main factor among weather cues, with the general pattern of flower masting being correlated negatively with temperature two years before masting and positively with temperature one year before masting. In addition, the short-term drought estimated by Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (12 months) increased flowering intensity in almost all cases. Therefore, it can be inferred that the heavy flowering of European common tree species has been regulated by sufficient resources and prevailing optimal climatic conditions.

桅杆开花和播种是一种众所周知的树种繁殖策略，具有许多生态后果，可在种群水平上调节同步的逐年开花强度变化。与开花时间相比，气候变化对跨空间、时间和物种的开花强度的影响在很大程度上尚未得到探索。在这项研究中，关于八种常见树种（ Alnus glutinosa、Fagus sylvatica、Larix decidua、Picea abies、Pinus sylvestris、Pseudotsuga menziesii、Quercus petraea和Quercus robur）开花强度的长期数据集) 在德国重新组装，通过应用 GAMLSS（位置尺度和形状的广义加法模型）模型以及气候数据（温度、降水和干旱）和各种时滞效应来分析开花机制和策略。在 1954-2019 年期间，所有物种的开花强度都在增加。落叶松和松属的开花强度在其各自的生态种源之间存在显着差异。时间序列显示阔叶树种比针叶树种具有更高的同步性，尽管它们的开花强度的相关系数通常随着时间的推移而增加。GAMLSS 模型主要很好地解释了开花强度，R ²介于 0.58 ( Pseudotsuga) 和 0.25 (桤木)。几乎所有物种的开花强度都受到前几年开花的显着影响，表明自相关影响指向资源枯竭和积累。生长季节温度被建模为天气线索中的主要因素，花肥大的一般模式与肥大前两年的温度呈负相关，与肥大前一年的温度呈正相关。此外，通过标准化降水-蒸散指数（12 个月）估计的短期干旱几乎在所有情况下都增加了开花强度。因此，可以推断，欧洲常见树种的大量开花受到了充足的资源和普遍的最佳气候条件的调节。