This article, with the benefit of hindsight, analyzes the accuracy (and inaccuracy) of my February 2001 article in the American Behavioral Scientist seeking to answer, “what is the future of terrorism?” I discovered that Shakespeare had it right, “The fault, dear Brutus, lies not in our stars, But in ourselves if we are underlings.” There are two major factors that produce and sustain international terrorism—state sponsorship of individuals and groups that carry out terrorist acts and the actions of nation states that create an aggrieved class that is inspired to use violence to try to achieve political objectives or simply to avenge a perceived wrong. The conclusion reached in 2001 remains valid—Prevention and preparation can pay important dividends in deterring terrorism. But a government’s response must be tempered with reason and prudence. Security and law enforcement policies must reflect the values and the vision that protect and uphold freedom.

这篇文章事后诸葛亮，分析了我 2001 年 2 月发表在美国行为科学家杂志上的文章的准确性（和不准确性）试图回答，“恐怖主义的未来是什么？” 我发现莎士比亚说得对，“亲爱的布鲁图斯，问题不在于我们的星星，而在于我们自己，如果我们是下属的话。” 产生和维持国际恐怖主义的主要因素有两个——国家支持实施恐怖行为的个人和团体，以及民族国家的行动创造了一个受害阶级，受鼓舞使用暴力来试图实现政治目标或只是为了报复一个被察觉的错误。2001 年得出的结论仍然有效——预防和准备可以在威慑恐怖主义方面带来重要的好处。但政府的反应必须理性和谨慎。安全和执法政策必须反映保护和维护自由的价值观和愿景。