“Hearts and minds” theory contends development aid strengthens community support for counterinsurgents by providing jobs and public goods. Based on field interviews in Kabul, we develop an alternative theoretical framework emphasizing instead the ideological preferences of civilians. In our model, some aid projects are ideologically contentious while others are benign. Given a mix of foreign aid, each civilian supports either the counterinsurgents or rebels, depending on his/her idiosyncratic preferences. In this setting, greater provisions of aid can actually erode community support. Donors therefore calibrate the mix of foreign aid to appease population groups with relatively strong ideological sensibilities. Individual-level analysis based on unique Afghan data substantiates key features of our theory. Benign projects lead to favorable opinions of development, while contentious aid has the opposite effect. Moreover, favorable opinions of development are associated with stronger support for government and counterinsurgents, and weaker support for rebels.

“全心全意”理论认为，发展援助通过提供就业机会和公共产品加强了社区对反叛分子的支持。基于在喀布尔的实地采访，我们开发了一个替代的理论框架，而不是强调平民的意识形态偏好。在我们的模型中，一些援助项目在意识形态上存在争议，而另一些则是良性的。鉴于外国援助的混合，每个平民都支持反叛乱分子或叛乱分子，这取决于他/她的特殊偏好。在这种情况下，提供更多的援助实际上会削弱社区的支持。因此，捐助者会调整外援的组合，以安抚意识形态敏感度相对较高的人群。基于阿富汗独特数据的个人层面分析证实了我们理论的关键特征。良性项目带来对发展的好感，而有争议的援助则产生相反的效果。此外，对发展的有利意见与对政府和镇压叛乱分子的更强烈支持以及对叛乱分子的更弱支持相关联。