One of the risks faced by habitat restoration practitioners is whether habitats included in restoration planning will be used by the target species or, conversely, whether habitats excluded from restoration planning would have benefited the target species. With the goal of providing a quantitative decision-making approach that represented varying levels of risk tolerance, we used multiple probability decision thresholds (PDT) to predict the range of occurrence for three anadromous fishes (Oncorhynchus spp.) in a watershed in southwestern Washington, USA. For each species, we compared the predicted range of occurrence to the distribution used for restoration planning and quantified the amount of habitat blocked by anthropogenic barriers. Coho salmon (O. kisutch) had the broadest predicted range of occurrence (3061.6–6357.9 km; 0.75–0.25 PDT), followed by steelhead trout (O. mykiss; 1828.8–2836.8 km) and chum salmon (O. keta; 1373.9–1629.1 km). For each species, the predicted range of occurrence was similar or greater than the distribution used for restoration planning, suggesting that the current plan may exclude habitats that would benefit each species. Coho salmon had the greatest percentage of habitat blocked by anthropogenic barriers, followed by steelhead trout and chum salmon, respectively. Modeling species distributions at multiple risk-tolerance scenarios acknowledges uncertainty in restoration planning and allows practitioners to weigh the ecological benefits and budgetary constraints when considering locations for restoration. To effectively communicate restoration science to support practitioners in decision-making, we developed an R Shiny application online user interface available at: https://shiny.wdfw-fish.us/ChehalisRiverBasinSalmonidRangeOfOccurence/.

中文翻译：

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物种分布和恢复规划中的风险识别：鲑科鱼类的案例研究

栖息地恢复从业者面临的风险之一是，包括在恢复计划中的栖息地是否会被目标物种使用，或者相反，被排除在恢复计划之外的栖息地是否会使目标物种受益。为了提供代表不同风险承受水平的定量决策方法，我们使用多个概率决策阈值 (PDT) 来预测华盛顿西南部一个分水岭中三种溯河鱼类 ( Oncorhynchus spp.) 的出现范围，美国。对于每个物种，我们将预测的发生范围与用于恢复规划的分布进行了比较，并量化了被人为障碍阻挡的栖息地数量。银鲑 ( O. kisutch) 的预测范围最广（3061.6–6357.9 km；0.75–0.25 PDT），其次是虹鳟（O. mykiss；1828.8–2836.8 km）和鲑鱼（O. keta; 1373.9–1629.1 公里）。对于每个物种，预测的发生范围与用于恢复规划的分布相似或更大，这表明当前计划可能排除了对每个物种有利的栖息地。银鲑的栖息地被人为障碍阻挡的比例最大，其次分别是虹鳟和鲑鱼。在多种风险承受能力情景下对物种分布进行建模承认恢复规划中的不确定性，并允许从业者在考虑恢复地点时权衡生态效益和预算限制。为了有效地传播修复科学以支持从业者的决策，我们开发了一个 R Shiny 应用程序在线用户界面，网址为：https://shiny.wdfw-fish。