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City-level impact of extreme temperatures and mortality in Latin America
Nature Medicine ( IF 82.9 ) Pub Date : 2022-06-27 , DOI: 10.1038/s41591-022-01872-6
Josiah L Kephart 1 , Brisa N Sánchez 2 , Jeffrey Moore 2 , Leah H Schinasi 1, 3 , Maryia Bakhtsiyarava 4 , Yang Ju 5 , Nelson Gouveia 6 , Waleska T Caiaffa 7 , Iryna Dronova 8 , Saravanan Arunachalam 9 , Ana V Diez Roux 1, 2 , Daniel A Rodríguez 4
Affiliation  

Climate change and urbanization are rapidly increasing human exposure to extreme ambient temperatures, yet few studies have examined temperature and mortality in Latin America. We conducted a nonlinear, distributed-lag, longitudinal analysis of daily ambient temperatures and mortality among 326 Latin American cities between 2002 and 2015. We observed 15,431,532 deaths among ≈2.9 billion person-years of risk. The excess death fraction of total deaths was 0.67% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58–0.74%) for heat-related deaths and 5.09% (95% CI 4.64–5.47%) for cold-related deaths. The relative risk of death was 1.057 (95% CI 1.046–1.067%) per 1 °C higher temperature during extreme heat and 1.034 (95% CI 1.028–1.040%) per 1 °C lower temperature during extreme cold. In Latin American cities, a substantial proportion of deaths is attributable to nonoptimal ambient temperatures. Marginal increases in observed hot temperatures are associated with steep increases in mortality risk. These risks were strongest among older adults and for cardiovascular and respiratory deaths.



中文翻译:

拉丁美洲极端温度和死亡率对城市级的影响

气候变化和城市化正在迅速增加人类对极端环境温度的暴露,但很少有研究调查拉丁美洲的温度和死亡率。我们对 2002 年至 2015 年间 326 个拉丁美洲城市的每日环境温度和死亡率进行了非线性、分布滞后、纵向分析。我们观察到 15,431,532 人死亡,风险约为 29 亿人年。总死亡人数的超额死亡分数对于热相关死亡为 0.67%(95% 置信区间 (CI) 0.58-0.74%),对于寒冷相关死亡为 5.09%(95% CI 4.64-5.47%)。在极热期间,温度每升高 1°C,死亡的相对风险为 1.057(95% CI 1.046-1.067%),在极冷期间,温度每降低 1°C,死亡的相对风险为 1.034(95% CI 1.028-1.040%)。在拉丁美洲城市,很大一部分死亡是由于环境温度不佳造成的。观察到的高温的边际增加与死亡风险的急剧增加有关。这些风险在老年人以及心血管和呼吸系统死亡中最为严重。

更新日期:2022-06-28
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