Full suppression strategies remain the dominant option in wildfire management, despite a large body of research demonstrating the ecological and economic benefits of allowing unplanned wildfires to burn under favorable conditions. Consequently, empirical research identifying and understanding the factors that contribute to these decisions within public land management agencies has become of critical importance in efforts to improve management outcomes. This paper assesses the importance of a set of institutional and socioeconomic factors with a random utility model of incident commander suppression decisions. We compare the importance of these factors on chosen strategies before and after an update to federal fire policy implementation guidance and an associated change to federal fire budgeting policy implemented in Fiscal Year 2010. We find that while the update to federal fire policy guidance may have been effective at increasing the probability that managers adopted a strategy other than full suppression, the subsequent increase in suppression budget allotments offset this impact, rendering no true difference in probabilities after the policy change.

尽管大量研究表明允许计划外野火在有利条件下燃烧具有生态和经济效益，但全面抑制策略仍然是野火管理的主要选择。因此，在公共土地管理机构内识别和理解促成这些决策的因素的实证研究对于改善管理成果的努力变得至关重要。本文通过事件指挥官压制决策的随机效用模型评估了一组制度和社会经济因素的重要性。我们比较了这些因素在联邦消防政策实施指南更新前后以及 2010 财年实施的联邦消防预算政策的相关变化之前和之后对所选策略的重要性。