Hydrogen can play an important role for decarbonization. While hydrogen is usually produced through SMR, it can also be produced through water electrolysis which is cleaner. The relative cost and carbon intensity of hydrogen production through SMR and electrolysis vary throughout the United States because of differences in the grid. While many hydrogen cost models exist, no regional hydrogen study has been conducted across the US. We studied how the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) and carbon intensity for producing hydrogen vary across the US. We looked at electrolysis technologies (Alkaline, PEM, and SOEC) and compared them to SMR. In 2020, SMR with 90 percent CCUS has a lower average LCOH and carbon intensity for hydrogen production than electrolysis by SOEC. For states with cleaner grids, hydrogen produced through SOEC has a lower carbon intensity than hydrogen produced using SMR with 90 percent CCUS. Washington has one of the lowest carbon footprints and the lowest LCOH to produce hydrogen through electrolysis (alkaline). We predict that the LCOH for hydrogen production will be 3.2 USD per kg for Alkaline, 3.1 USD per kg for PEM, and 2.6 USD per kg for SOEC by 2050 with constant electricity prices. These projected LCOHs are still higher than the LCOH for hydrogen produced through SMR with 90 percent CCUS. If electricity costs decrease to 2c per kWh, we expect to reach cost-parity with SMR with 90 percent CCUS. The results suggest that significant investment in decarbonizing the grid and lowering the cost of electricity needs to be made to make electrolysis more competitive compared to SMR.

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分析美国和未来 30 年的氢气生产成本

氢可以在脱碳中发挥重要作用。虽然氢气通常通过 SMR 生产，但也可以通过更清洁的水电解生产。由于电网的差异，通过 SMR 和电解制氢的相对成本和碳强度在美国各地有所不同。虽然存在许多氢气成本模型，但尚未在美国进行区域性氢气研究。我们研究了氢气的平准化成本 (LCOH) 和生产氢气的碳强度如何在美国各地变化。我们研究了电解技术（碱性、PEM 和 SOEC）并将它们与 SMR 进行了比较。到 2020 年，具有 90% CCUS 的 SMR 制氢的平均 LCOH 和碳强度低于 SOEC 的电解。对于电网更干净的州，通过 SOEC 生产的氢气的碳强度低于使用具有 90% CCUS 的 SMR 生产的氢气。华盛顿是通过电解（碱性）生产氢气的最低碳足迹和最低 LCOH 之一。我们预测，到 2050 年，在电价不变的情况下，用于制氢的 LCOH 将是碱性 3.2 美元/公斤，PEM 3.1 美元/公斤，SOEC 2.6 美元/公斤。这些预计的 LCOH 仍高于通过 SMR 生产的氢气的 LCOH，CCUS 为 90%。如果电力成本降低到每千瓦时 2 美分，我们预计将达到与 SMR 的成本平价，CCUS 为 90%。结果表明，与 SMR 相比，需要对电网脱碳和降低电力成本进行大量投资，以使电解更具竞争力。