Abstract

Extreme temperature events and their long-term variability are investigated using daily air temperature data from Murmansk weather station for the period of 1942–2018. It was found that the variability of extremely warm and cold events in Murmansk in winter is mainly explained rather by the dynamics of storm tracks than by the local processes of air mass transformation in the region. It is shown that the main characteristics of extreme events demonstrate a clearly pronounced seasonality. It was revealed that the positive trend in seasonal mean temperatures is mainly due to the reduced number of extremely cold events in Murmansk. The study shows that the leading factor determining the variability of extreme events is the Arctic Oscillation (AO). In turn, the AO anomalies are formed as a result of the dynamic stratosphere–troposphere coupling, which is expressed in the response of storm tracks to sudden stratospheric warmings.

中文翻译：

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摩尔曼斯克过去 70 年的温度变化：长期趋势和极端事件

摘要

使用摩尔曼斯克气象站 1942-2018 年期间的每日气温数据研究极端温度事件及其长期变化。研究发现，摩尔曼斯克冬季极冷和极冷事件的变化主要是由风暴轨迹的动力学而不是该地区气团转换的局部过程来解释的。结果表明，极端事件的主要特征表现出明显的季节性。据透露，季节性平均气温的积极趋势主要是由于摩尔曼斯克极冷事件的数量减少。研究表明，决定极端事件多变性的主要因素是北极涛动（AO）。反过来，AO异常是由于动态平流层 - 对流层耦合而形成的，