The capacity factor (cf) is a critical variable for quantifying wind turbine efficiency. Climate change-induced wind resource variations and technical wind turbine fleet development will alter future cfs. Here we define 12 techno-climatic change scenarios to assess regional and global onshore cfs in 2021–2060. Despite a decreasing global wind resource, we find an increase in future global cf caused by fleet development. The increase is significant under all evaluated techno-climatic scenarios. Under the likely emissions scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2–4.5, global cf increases from 0.251 in 2021 up to 0.310 in 2035 under ambitious fleet development. This cf enhancement is equivalent to a 361 TWh yield improvement under the globally installed capacity of 2020 (698 GW). To increase the contribution of the future wind turbine fleet to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate protection goals, we recommend a rapid wind turbine fleet conversion.

容量因子 ( cf ) 是量化风力涡轮机效率的关键变量。气候变化引起的风力资源变化和技术风力涡轮机机队的发展将改变未来的cfs。在这里，我们定义了 12 种技术气候变化情景，以评估 2021-2060 年的区域和全球陆上cfs。尽管全球风能资源减少，但我们发现未来全球cf因机队发展而增加。在所有评估的技术气候情景下，这一增长都是显着的。在可能的排放情景共享社会经济途径 2-4.5 下，在雄心勃勃的车队发展下，全球cf从 2021 年的 0.251 增加到 2035 年的 0.310。这比照在 2020 年全球装机容量（698 吉瓦）下，这相当于提高了 361 太瓦时的产量。为了增加未来风力涡轮机机队对政府间气候变化专门委员会气候保护目标的贡献，我们建议快速风力涡轮机机队转换。