The prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity at landfall is crucial for regions vulnerable to high winds and storm surges, but its accuracy has experienced only limited improvement. At high resolution with a grid size of 2.5 km, the Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS) is applied to Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013), one of the strongest TCs to ever make landfall (at 85 m s⁻¹ in peak wind speed and 900 hPa in central pressure. Predictions are made every 6 h using a time-lagged strategy so that the computational cost is relatively low. Averaging at 64 m s⁻¹ and 925 hPa, our hindcasts during 4–7 November show large improvements in pre-landfall intensity over global models. Furthermore, when the previous CReSS result that best matches the observed intensity is used as the initial field, the predicted intensity consistently reaches 73–76 m s⁻¹ and below 900 hPa. Thus, this approach is shown to produce more accurate TC intensity forecasts for storm-surge simulations for Haiyan.

登陆时热带气旋 (TC) 强度的预测对于易受强风和风暴潮影响的地区至关重要，但其准确性仅得到有限的改进。在网格大小为 2.5 公里的高分辨率下，云解析风暴模拟器 (CReSS) 应用于超级台风海燕 (2013)，这是有史以来登陆的最强 TC 之一（峰值风速为 85 m s ^-1和中心压力为 900 hPa。使用时滞策略每 6 小时进行一次预测，因此计算成本相对较低。平均为 64 m s ^-1和 925 hPa，我们在 11 月 4 日至 7 日的后报显示，与全球模式相比，登陆前的强度有了很大的提高。此外，当使用与观测强度最匹配的先前 CReSS 结果作为初始场时，预测强度始终达到 73-76 m s ^-1并低于 900 hPa。因此，这种方法被证明可以为海盐风暴潮模拟产生更准确的 TC 强度预测。