Understanding the factors affecting consumer replacement behavior is important in extending the product lifetime in a circular economy. Although such factors have been widely investigated, methodologies to quantitatively measure the potential of changes in these aspects are scarce. They help to consider effective strategies for product lifetime extension. This study focused on the expected product lifetime and constructed a framework to analyze this potential, using air conditioners in Japan as a case study. When the expected product lifetime increased by 1, 2, and 3 years, the mean actual product lifetime rose by 0.9, 1.8, and 2.72 years, respectively, whose values can be sufficiently recognized as potentials for product lifetime extension. The results indicate that products and services for product lifetime extension can actually be used by consumers. Therefore, business strategies for product lifetime extension can increase resource efficiency and potentially strengthen competitiveness in future resource constraint economies.

中文翻译：

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通过增加预期产品寿命来衡量延长产品寿命的潜力：方法论和案例研究

了解影响消费者更换行为的因素对于延长循环经济中的产品寿命非常重要。尽管这些因素已被广泛研究，但定量衡量这些方面变化潜力的方法却很少。它们有助于考虑延长产品寿命的有效策略。本研究以日本的空调为例，重点关注产品的预期寿命，并构建了一个分析这种潜力的框架。当预期产品寿命增加1年、2年和3年时，平均实际产品寿命分别增加0.9年、1.8年和2.72年，其值足以被认为是产品寿命延长的潜力。结果表明，延长产品寿命的产品和服务实际上可以为消费者所用。因此，延长产品寿命的商业策略可以提高资源效率，并有可能增强未来资源约束经济体的竞争力。