A reasonable assessment of the probability of structural failure is essential to ensure the safe performance of corroded reinforced concrete (RC) structures. In this paper, a novel cross-sectional area loss model of corroded steel bars is proposed and the scale of fluctuation of some key parameters is estimated using the semi-variogram function method. A stochastic resistance deterioration model considering the effect of unbalanced corrosion and spatial variability and a time-dependent reliability assessment method of corroded concrete structures (CCSs) are then presented. A simple case analysis of a CCS is used to illustrate the application of the proposed method. The case analysis results show that the cumulative failure probability (CFP) is overestimated using the popular pit area model, while it is underestimated without considering the spatial variability of calculation parameters. Random field parameter analysis shows that an appropriate choice of the element size is very important for the safety evaluation of RC structures. Additionally, compared with a marine atmospheric environment, the CFP of a case study structure in tidal and splash environments was found to be increased by 20.15% and 70.40%, respectively, due to the gradual increase of corrosion current density. Of the three service environments, the splash environment thus has the greatest impact on structural failure probability.

中文翻译：

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考虑空间变异性影响的锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构失效概率分析

对结构失效概率的合理评估对于确保腐蚀钢筋混凝土 (RC) 结构的安全性能至关重要。本文提出了一种新的锈蚀钢筋横截面积损失模型，并利用半变异函数法估计了一些关键参数的波动规模。然后提出了考虑不平衡腐蚀和空间变异性影响的随机阻力退化模型和腐蚀混凝土结构 (CCS) 的时间相关可靠性评估方法。CCS 的简单案例分析用于说明所提出方法的应用。案例分析结果表明，使用流行的坑区模型高估了累积失效概率（CFP），而在不考虑计算参数的空间变异性的情况下，它被低估了。随机场参数分析表明，选择合适的单元尺寸对于RC结构的安全性评价非常重要。此外，与海洋大气环境相比，由于腐蚀电流密度逐渐增加，潮汐和飞溅环境中的案例研究结构的 CFP 分别增加了 20.15% 和 70.40%。因此，在三种服役环境中，飞溅环境对结构失效概率的影响最大。与海洋大气环境相比，由于腐蚀电流密度逐渐增加，潮汐和飞溅环境中的案例研究结构的 CFP 分别增加了 20.15% 和 70.40%。因此，在三种服役环境中，飞溅环境对结构失效概率的影响最大。与海洋大气环境相比，由于腐蚀电流密度逐渐增加，潮汐和飞溅环境中的案例研究结构的 CFP 分别增加了 20.15% 和 70.40%。因此，在三种服役环境中，飞溅环境对结构失效概率的影响最大。