Few studies have analyzed the mobility impacts of TOD using a longitudinal research approach, and even fewer incorporated origin–destination (OD) information in the analysis. In this paper, we examine the impacts of a metro system with TOD features on the share of car and bus trips using Metro do Porto as a case study. The application of an autoregressive beta regression modeling approach to parish and OD data from two mobility surveys (2000 and 2017) allowed to detect changes in travel behavior accounting for pre-metro mode shares. Metro implementation was associated with strong reductions of the share of car trips in OD pairs with metro at both trip ends, especially when stations were TOD. Metro influence on the share of bus trips varied from neutral to positive, suggesting that bus and metro complement each other rather than compete for passengers.

很少有研究使用纵向研究方法分析 TOD 的流动性影响，在分析中纳入的起点-目的地 (OD) 信息更是少之又少。在本文中，我们以 Metro do Porto 为例，研究了具有 TOD 功能的地铁系统对汽车和公共汽车出行份额的影响。将自回归 beta 回归建模方法应用于来自两项流动性调查（2000 年和 2017 年）的教区和 OD 数据，可以检测出行行为的变化，以解释地铁模式前的份额。地铁的实施与 OD 对中的汽车出行份额的大幅减少有关，在出行的两端都有地铁，尤其是当车站是 TOD 时。地铁对公交出行份额的影响从中性到积极，