Despite several studies on decadal-scale solar influence on climate, a systematic analysis of the Sun's contribution to decadal surface climate predictability is still missing. Here, we disentangle the solar-cycle-induced climate response from internal variability and from other external forcings such as greenhouse gases. We utilize two 10-member ensemble simulations with a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model, to date a unique dataset in chemistry–climate modeling. Using these model simulations, we quantify the potential predictability related to the solar cycle and demonstrate that the detectability of the solar influence on surface climate depends on the magnitude of the solar cycle. Further, we show that a strong solar cycle forcing organizes and synchronizes the decadal-scale component of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the dominant mode of climate variability in the North Atlantic region.

中文翻译：

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太阳在北大西洋年代际气候可预测性中的作用

尽管对年代际尺度的太阳对气候的影响进行了几项研究，但仍然缺少对太阳对年代际表面气候可预测性的贡献的系统分析。在这里，我们将太阳周期引起的气候响应与内部变率和其他外部强迫（如温室气体）分开。我们利用两个 10 成员的集合模拟和最先进的化学气候模型来确定化学气候建模中独特的数据集。使用这些模型模拟，我们量化了与太阳周期相关的潜在可预测性，并证明太阳对地表气候影响的可检测性取决于太阳周期的大小。此外，我们表明，强烈的太阳周期强迫组织并同步了北大西洋涛动的年代际分量，