Updated Trewartha climate classification with four climate change scenarios,The Geographical Journal

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Updated Trewartha climate classification with four climate change scenarios
The Geographical Journal ( IF 3.6 ) Pub Date : 2022-06-16 , DOI: 10.1111/geoj.12458
Aleksandar Valjarević ₁ , Miško Milanović ₁ , Ismail Gultepe _{2,

3,

4} , Dejan Filipović ₁ , Tin Lukić ₅

Affiliation

The Updated Trewartha climate classification (TWCC) at global level shows the changes that are expected as a consequence of global temperature increase and imbalance of precipitation. This type of classification is more precise than the Köppen climate classification. Predictions included the increase in global temperature (T in °C) and change in the amount of precipitation (PA in mm). Two climate models MIROC6 and IPSL-CM6A- LR were used, along with 4261 meteorological stations from which the data on temperature and precipitation were taken. These climate models were used because they represent the most extreme models in the CMIP6 database. Four scenarios of climate change and their territories were analysed in accordance with the TWCC classification. Four scenarios of representative concentration pathway (RCP) by 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 W/m² follow the increase of temperature between 0.3°C and 4.3°C in relation to precipitation and are being analysed for the periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100. The biggest extremes are shown in the last grid for the period 2081–2100, reflecting the increase of T up to 4.3°C. With the help of GIS (geographical information systems) and spatial analyses, it is possible to estimate the changes in climate zones as well as their movement. Australia and South East Asia will suffer the biggest changes of biomes, followed by South America and North America. Climate belts to undergo the biggest change due to such temperature according to TWCC are Ar, Am, Aw and BS, BW, E, Ft and Fi. The Antarctic will lose 11.5% of the territory under Fi and Ft climates within the period between 2081 and 2100. The conclusion is that the climates BW, Bwh and Bwk, which represent the deserts, will increase by 119.8% with the increase of T by 4.3°C.

中文翻译：

使用四种气候变化情景更新了 Trewartha 气候分类

全球层面更新的 Trewartha 气候分类 (TWCC) 显示了全球气温升高和降水不平衡导致的预期变化。这种分类比柯本气候分类更精确。预测包括全球温度升高（T 以°C 为单位）和降水量的变化（PA 以毫米为单位）。使用了两个气候模型 MIROC6 和 IPSL-CM6A-LR，以及从中获取温度和降水数据的 4261 个气象站。使用这些气候模型是因为它们代表了 CMIP6 数据库中最极端的模型。根据 TWCC 分类分析了四种气候变化情景及其领土。2.6、4.5、6.0 和 8.5 W/m 的代表性浓度途径 (RCP) 的四种情景^2个跟随与降水有关的 0.3°C 和 4.3°C 之间的温度升高，并针对 2021-2040、2041-2060、2061-2080 和 2081-2100 期间进行分析。2081-2100 年期间的最后一个网格显示了最大的极端值，反映了 T 增加到 4.3°C。在 GIS（地理信息系统）和空间分析的帮助下，可以估计气候带的变化及其运动。澳大利亚和东南亚将遭受最大的生物群落变化，其次是南美洲和北美。根据 TWCC，由于此类温度而发生最大变化的气候带是 Ar、Am、Aw 和 BS、BW、E、Ft 和 Fi。在 2081 年至 2100 年期间，在 Fi 和 Ft 气候下，南极将失去 11.5% 的领土。结论是气候 BW，

更新日期：2022-06-16

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