Pension systems and old-age poverty have been studied mainly from comparative perspectives, but causal evidence on the relationship between the two is still rare. This study investigates to what extent implementing non-contributory pensions to a latecomer contributory pension system with a wide coverage gap alleviates old-age poverty, based on the case of recent Basic Pension expansions in South Korea. Using nationally representative household data from 2011 to 2019, we employ a quasi-experimental difference-in-difference design to estimate the impact of policy expansions on a set of outcomes measuring old-age poverty, employment and household income components. The results show that three reforms in 2014, 2018 and 2019 have significantly reduced older people's poverty rate, and they were more effective in reducing extreme poverty. While policy effects after the 2014 expansion are robust in our set of alternative estimations, those after the joint reforms of 2018 and 2019 are less consistent and show signals of a stronger ‘crowding-out’ effect on private transfer income than those after 2014. We found no convincing evidence that non-contributory pensions discourage older people's labour market participation. Our findings contribute to the literature on public pension evaluations by elucidating how non-contributory pensions affect old-age poverty and tackle social and economic inequalities via various channels of income components, while also mitigating endogeneity biases observed in previous studies.

中文翻译：

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养老金后来者的老年贫困：韩国基本养老金扩张的影响

养老金制度和老年贫困的研究主要从比较的角度进行，但关于两者之间关系的因果证据仍然很少。本研究以韩国近期基本养老金扩张的案例为基础，调查了在覆盖差距较大的后来者缴费型养老金体系中实施非缴费型养老金在多大程度上减轻了老年贫困。我们使用 2011 年至 2019 年具有全国代表性的家庭数据，采用准实验差异设计来估计政策扩张对衡量老年贫困、就业和家庭收入组成部分的一组结果的影响。结果表明，2014年、2018年和2019年的三项改革显着降低了老年人的贫困率，在减少极端贫困方面更加有效。虽然 2014 年扩张后的政策效应在我们的一组替代估计中是稳健的，但 2018 年和 2019 年联合改革后的政策效应不太一致，并且显示出比 2014 年之后对私人转移收入的“挤出”效应更强的信号。我们没有发现令人信服的证据表明非缴费型养老金会阻碍老年人的劳动力市场参与。我们的研究结果有助于阐明非缴费型养老金如何影响老年贫困，并通过各种收入渠道解决社会和经济不平等问题，同时减轻先前研究中观察到的内生性偏差，从而为公共养老金评估文献做出贡献。2018 年和 2019 年联合改革之后的情况不太一致，显示出对私人转移收入的“挤出”效应比 2014 年之后更强的信号。我们发现没有令人信服的证据表明非缴费型养老金会阻碍老年人的劳动力市场参与。我们的研究结果有助于阐明非缴费型养老金如何影响老年贫困，并通过各种收入渠道解决社会和经济不平等问题，同时减轻先前研究中观察到的内生性偏差，从而为公共养老金评估文献做出贡献。2018 年和 2019 年联合改革之后的情况不太一致，显示出对私人转移收入的“挤出”效应比 2014 年之后更强的信号。我们发现没有令人信服的证据表明非缴费型养老金会阻碍老年人的劳动力市场参与。我们的研究结果有助于阐明非缴费型养老金如何影响老年贫困，并通过各种收入渠道解决社会和经济不平等问题，同时减轻先前研究中观察到的内生性偏差，从而为公共养老金评估文献做出贡献。