Background

Long-term exposure to PM_2.5 is proved to be linked with mortality. However, limited studies have estimated the PM_2.5 related loss of life expectancy (LLE) and its changing trends. How much life expectancy would be improved if PM_2.5 pollution is reduced to the new WHO air quality guideline (AQG) level is unclear.

Methods

Data on deaths from all-causes, cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were collected from 5,565 Brazilian municipalities during 2010–2018. A difference-in-differences approach with quasi-Poisson regression was applied to examine the PM_2.5-years of life lost (YLL) associations and PM_2.5 associated LLE.

Results

The annual PM_2.5 concentration in each municipality from 2010 to 2018 was 7.7 µg/m³ in Brazil. Nationally, with each 10 μg/m³ increase in five-year-average (current and previous four years) concentrations of PM_2.5, the relative risks (RRs) were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.15–1.21) for YLL from all-causes, 1.22 (1.16–1.28) from cancer, 1.12 (1.08–1.17) from cardiovascular and 1.17 (1.10–1.25) from respiratory diseases. Life expectancy could be improved by 1.09 (95% CI: 0.92–1.25) years by limiting PM_2.5 concentration to the national lowest level (2.9 µg/m³), specifically, 0.20 (0.15–0.24) years for cancer, 0.16 (0.11–0.22) years for cardiovascular and 0.09 (0.05–0.13) years for respiratory diseases, with significant disparities across regions and municipalities. Life expectancy would be improved by 0.78 (0.66–0.90) years by setting the new WHO AQG PM_2.5 concentration level of 5 μg/m³ as an acceptable threshold.

Conclusions

Using nationwide death records in Brazil, we found that long-term exposure to PM_2.5 was associated with reduced life expectancy from all-causes, cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases with regional inequalities and different trends. PM_2.5 pollution abatement to below the WHO AQG level would improve this loss of life expectancy in Brazil.

中文翻译：

---

巴西 PM2.5 导致预期寿命下降：2010 年至 2018 年全国研究

背景

事实证明，长期接触 PM _2.5与死亡率有关。然而，有限的研究估计了与 PM _2.5相关的预期寿命损失 (LLE) 及其变化趋势。_{如果 PM 2.5}污染降低到新的世界卫生组织空气质量指南 (AQG) 水平，预期寿命会提高多少尚不清楚。

方法

2010 年至 2018 年期间，收集了巴西 5,565 个城市的全因死亡、癌症、心血管和呼吸系统疾病死亡数据。应用准泊松回归的双重差分方法来检查 PM _2.5寿命损失 (YLL) 关联和 PM _2.5相关 LLE。

结果

2010年至2018年，巴西各城市PM _{2.5年浓度为7.7 µg/m} ^{3 。}_{在全国范围内，PM 2.5}的五年平均浓度（当前和前四年）每增加 10 μg/m ³，所有年份的 YLL 的相对风险 (RR) 为 1.18（95% CI：1.15–1.21）。原因，1.22 (1.16–1.28) 来自癌症，1.12 (1.08–1.17) 来自心血管疾病，1.17 (1.10–1.25) 来自呼吸系统疾病。_{通过将 PM 2.5}浓度限制在全国最低水平 (2.9 µg/m ³ )，预期寿命可延长 1.09 (95% CI: 0.92–1.25) 年，具体而言，癌症可延长 0.20 (0.15–0.24) 年，癌症可延长 0.16 (0.11) 年。心血管疾病为 –0.22) 年，呼吸系统疾病为 0.09 (0.05–0.13) 年，不同地区和城市之间存在显着差异。_{通过将新的 WHO AQG PM 2.5}浓度水平 5 μg/m ³设置为可接受的阈值，预期寿命将提高 0.78 (0.66–0.90) 年。

结论

利用巴西全国的死亡记录，我们发现长期接触 PM _2.5与各种原因、癌症、心血管和呼吸系统疾病导致的预期寿命缩短有关，且存在地区不平等和不同的趋势。将PM _2.5污染减少到世界卫生组织 AQG 水平以下将改善巴西的预期寿命损失。