Extensive research has studied the near-field tsunami threat in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), but little research has examined the ability to evacuate the inundation zone before the first tsunami wave arrives. To address this gap, this study provides empirical evidence about people’s expectations about hazard onset and evacuation logistics when a tsunami threatens. We surveyed households in five CSZ communities to assess residents’ expected first wave arrival time, as well as their expectations about evacuation destinations, route choices, preparation times, travel times, and clearance times. Heatmaps are used to summarize residents’ evacuation destinations and route choices, and probabilistic functions are used to model evacuation distances and time estimates. The results suggest that respondents have similar patterns of time estimates, but a few plan to evacuate within the inundation zone, and some plan to evacuate on routes that were congested in a previous event and end their evacuations at destinations within the inundation zone.

广泛的研究已经研究了卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带 (CSZ) 的近场海啸威胁，但很少有研究检查在第一次俯冲带之前撤离淹没带的能力海啸波来了。为了解决这一差距，本研究提供了关于人们在海啸威胁时对灾害发生和疏散后勤的期望的经验证据。我们对五个 CSZ 社区的家庭进行了调查，以评估居民对第一波到达时间的预期，以及他们对疏散目的地、路线选择、准备时间、旅行时间和通关时间的期望。热图用于总结居民的疏散目的地和路线选择，概率函数用于模拟疏散距离和时间估计。结果表明，受访者的时间估计模式相似，但少数人计划在淹没区内撤离，