Mediterranean watersheds are expected to face increased and more severe drought events due to climate change. Urgent action is needed to shift from a reactive approach to a proactive one, for which drought risk assessment is fundamental. Nevertheless, the current methodology to calculate composite risk indicators is still debated, undermining the overall robustness and validity of drought risk assessments. Furthermore, the diversity of socio-ecological contexts, spatiotemporal scales, and data availability hamper the homogenization of assessment methods. We present a complete drought risk assessment methodology, applied to the agricultural systems of five Italian coastal watersheds, introducing a simple robustness evaluation method to validate the assessment tool and archetype analysis to link the outputs with adaptation strategies. Forty-two (42) indicators were included to represent hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Past and future drought hazards were estimated considering multiple types of droughts with data from public observatories.The results show highest hazard for the southern part of the study region, highest exposure in the coastal and high-value wine producers’ municipalities, while vulnerability patterns are less clear. Major adaptation efforts should target specific watersheds of the Grosseto province, which has the highest projected drought risk. Archetype analysis was then used to suggest possible context-specific adaptation strategies. The proposed methodology, with the integration of a robustness evaluation and the archetype analysis, represents an advancement toward shared and homogeneous guidelines in state-of-the-art drought risk assessments.

由于气候变化，预计地中海流域将面临更多和更严重的干旱事件。需要采取紧急行动，从被动的方法转变为主动的方法，干旱风险评估对此至关重要。然而，目前计算综合风险指标的方法仍然存在争议，这削弱了干旱风险评估的整体稳健性和有效性。此外，社会生态环境、时空尺度和数据可用性的多样性阻碍了同质化的评估方法。我们提出了一个完整的干旱风险评估方法，应用于五个意大利沿海流域的农业系统，引入了一种简单的稳健性评估方法来验证评估工具和原型分析，以将输出与适应策略联系起来。包括四十二 (42) 个指标来代表危害、暴露和脆弱性。根据公共观测站的数据，考虑多种类型的干旱，估计过去和未来的干旱危害。结果显示，研究区域南部的危害最高，沿海和高价值葡萄酒生产商的城市暴露程度最高，而脆弱性模式则是不太清楚。主要的适应工作应针对预计干旱风险最高的格罗塞托省的特定流域。然后使用原型分析来建议可能的特定环境适应策略。所提出的方法结合了稳健性评估和原型分析，代表了在最先进的干旱风险评估中朝着共享和同质指南的进步。