The world's nations are committed to keeping global temperature rises to less than 2°C to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Such a target is crucial for mangrove forests, because they are located primarily in tropical and subtropical regions that are expected to see large changes in climatic conditions; their intertidal location and sensitivity to changes in environmental conditions means that mangroves are expected to be on the front line of climate change impacts. We conceptualize what a 2°C world might look like for mangroves, and in particular the potential negative and positive responses of the mangrove ecosystem to anticipated changes in future atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, temperature, sea level, cyclone activity, storminess and changes in the frequency, and magnitude of climatic oscillations. We also assess the spatial distribution of such stressors, their relative contributions to mangrove ecosystem dynamics, and discuss the challenges in attributing mangrove ecosystem dynamics to climate change versus other global change stressors. Such knowledge can help future-proof conservation and restoration activities, improve the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's confidence level ascribed to climate change impacts on mangrove forests, and highlight the key temperature thresholds beyond which the future of the world's mangroves is less certain.

中文翻译：

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2°C 世界气候变化下的红树林

世界各国致力于将全球气温上升控制在 2°C 以下，以避免气候变化的最坏影响。这样的目标对红树林至关重要，因为它们主要位于热带和亚热带地区，预计气候条件会发生巨大变化；它们的潮间带位置和对环境条件变化的敏感性意味着红树林预计将处于气候变化影响的前沿。我们将红树林的 2°C 世界概念化，特别是红树林生态系统对未来大气 CO _{2预期变化的潜在消极和积极反应}浓度、温度、海平面、气旋活动、暴风雨和频率变化以及气候波动的幅度。我们还评估了这些压力源的空间分布，它们对红树林生态系统动态的相对贡献，并讨论了将红树林生态系统动态归因于气候变化与其他全球变化压力源的挑战。这些知识可以帮助开展面向未来的保护和恢复活动，提高政府间气候变化专门委员会对气候变化对红树林影响的信心水平，并突出关键温度阈值，超过该阈值世界红树林的未来不太确定。