McMurdo Ice Shelf (MIS) and Ross Island act as both lateral margins and pinning points for the Ross Ice Shelf, as well as logistic hubs for the United States and New Zealand Antarctic Programs. Recent thinning and retreat of MIS has motivated an evaluation of the future stability of this critical region and potential adaptation. If MIS were to collapse, it could initiate sizeable teleconnections across West Antarctica, as well as stifle Antarctic research that relies on MIS/Ross Island-based logistics. One logistics component already experiencing change is the Transition Zone (TZ) road, which connects MIS with the research stations on Hut Point Peninsula (HPP), Ross Island. Here we assess the vulnerability of the TZ road and a proposed rerouting location (TZ Hillside), by using a combination of in situ, remote sensing, and numerical modeling approaches. We evaluate overall elevation change by differencing late summer, WorldView-derived, DEMs (2011–2015), and evaluate the practicality of both a stable ice surface and bare earth road using a numerical ice volume flux model, informed by GPR and GPS measurements of ice thickness and velocity (2015–2016). Results show overall ice elevation change of up to 3 m, and 204 ± 24 m³ a⁻¹ of ice flux across the TZ Hillside. Combined, these results indicate that the TZ Hillside is unsuitable for either type of road, and point to MIS terminus retreat and TZ Hillside melt as a continuing risk for TZ stability, which could prelude broader changes.

麦克默多冰架 (MIS) 和罗斯岛既是罗斯冰架的横向边缘和固定点，也是美国和新西兰南极计划的物流枢纽。最近 MIS 的变薄和撤退激发了对该关键区域未来稳定性和潜在适应性的评估。如果 MIS 崩溃，它可能会在整个西南极洲启动相当大的远程连接，并扼杀依赖 MIS/罗斯岛物流的南极研究。一个已经发生变化的物流组成部分是过渡区 (TZ) 公路，它将 MIS 与罗斯岛 Hut Point 半岛 (HPP) 的研究站连接起来。在这里，我们通过使用原位、遥感、和数值建模方法。我们通过对夏末、WorldView 派生的 DEM（2011-2015 年）进行差分来评估整体海拔变化，并使用 GPR 和 GPS 测量的数值冰量通量模型评估稳定冰面和裸土道路的实用性冰的厚度和速度（2015-2016）。结果显示整体冰面高度变化高达 3 m 和 204 ± 24 m³ a ^-1穿过 TZ 山坡的冰通量。综合起来，这些结果表明 TZ Hillside 不适合任何一种类型的道路，并指出 MIS 终点撤退和 TZ Hillside 融化是 TZ 稳定性的持续风险，这可能预示着更广泛的变化。