Abstract The present paper provides a methodological case study on how underlying incipient grammar change might be discerned even when frequencies of the incoming variant are apparently marginal and stable. Analysing the spread of tonic possessive pronouns in complements of locative adverbial constructions in European Spanish from a probabilistic perspective, more than 11,000 locative constructions from 1900 to 2004 were compiled, and probabilistic grammar change was operationalised as an interactive function between language-internal predictors and real time. The results reveal that numerous intralinguistic factors have been and are active in constraining the variation, with the innovation spreading significantly in spite of apparent stability in frequency. Crucially, the findings demonstrate that, even in a relatively standardised written language where the innovation has a considerably low frequency, the innovation grammaticalises along the same pathway as in colloquial vernaculars where the incoming variant is employed much more frequently.

中文翻译：

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实时建模初始概率语法变化：欧洲西班牙语方位状语结构中所有格代词的语法化

摘要 本文提供了一个方法论案例研究，说明即使传入变体的频率明显边缘和稳定，如何识别潜在的初始语法变化。从概率的角度分析主调所有格代词在欧洲西班牙语处所状语结构补语中的传播，从 1900 年到 2004 年编制了 11,000 多个处所结构，并将概率语法变化作为语言内部预测因子和真实之间的交互功能进行了操作。时间。结果表明，许多语言内因素已经并且正在积极地限制变化，尽管频率明显稳定，但创新显着传播。至关重要的是，研究结果表明，