We propose the method for calculating the probability of a safe landing for ship-based aircraft. We define a safe landing as the event that the initial touch of the landing surface by an aircraft occurs on a given segment of the deck, and at the time of this contact, the phase coordinates of the aircraft (elevation angle, banking angle, vertical velocity, and so on) are within the specified limits. We propose a formula for estimating the desired probability and a formula for determining the maximum possible error ΔP\Delta P of this estimate: If P P is an unknown exact value of the desired probability and P^\hat{P} is an approximate calculated value, then |P−P^|≤ΔP|P-\hat{P}|\leq \Delta P. We implement the method on the example of the automatic landing of a MiG-29 K aircraft on the aircraft carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov.” Random perturbations are caused by an atmospheric turbulence and ship’s motions. We present and discuss the calculation results. These results show that the error ΔP\Delta P is negligible, so that the proposed formula for P^\hat{P} determines the desired probability PP almost exactly.

中文翻译：

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舰载飞机安全着陆概率的计算方法


我们提出了计算舰载飞机安全着陆概率的方法。我们将安全着陆定义为飞机首次接触着陆面发生在甲板的给定部分上，并且在接触时飞机的相位坐标（仰角、倾斜角、垂直角）的事件。速度等）都在规定的范围内。我们提出了一个估计期望概率的公式和一个确定该估计的最大可能误差 ΔP\Delta P 的公式： 如果 PP 是期望概率的未知精确值，并且 P^\hat{P} 是近似计算值，则 |P−P^|≤ΔP|P-\hat{P}|\leq \Delta P。我们以“库兹涅佐夫海军上将”号航空母舰上的 MiG-29 K 飞机自动着陆为例实现该方法”。随机扰动是由大气湍流和船舶运动引起的。我们展示并讨论计算结果。这些结果表明误差 ΔP\Delta P 可以忽略不计，因此所提出的 P^\hat{P} 公式几乎准确地确定了所需的概率 PP。