Abstract I show that a disruption to the financial sector can reshape the patterns of global trade for decades. I study the first modern global banking crisis originating in London in 1866 and collect archival loan records that link multinational banks headquartered there to their lending abroad. Countries exposed to bank failures in London immediately exported significantly less and did not recover their lost growth relative to unexposed places. Their market shares within each destination also remained significantly lower for four decades. Decomposing the persistent market-share losses shows that they primarily stem from lack of extensive-margin growth, as the financing shock caused importers to source more from new trade partnerships. Exporters producing more substitutable goods, those with little access to alternative forms of credit, and those trading with more distant partners experienced more persistent losses, consistent with the existence of sunk costs and the importance of finance for intermediating trade.

中文翻译：

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重塑全球贸易：银行倒闭的直接和长期影响

摘要我表明，对金融部门的破坏可以重塑数十年的全球贸易模式。我研究了 1866 年起源于伦敦的第一次现代全球银行业危机，并收集了将总部设在伦敦的跨国银行与其海外贷款联系起来的档案贷款记录。受伦敦银行倒闭影响的国家的出口立即显着减少，并且相对于未受风险影响的地方，并没有恢复其损失的增长。他们在每个目的地的市场份额在过去的 4 年里也一直显着下降。分解持续的市场份额损失表明，它们主要源于缺乏广泛的利润增长，因为融资冲击导致进口商更多地从新的贸易伙伴关系中采购。生产更多可替代商品的出口商，