Oceans play critical roles in the lives, economies, cultures, and nutrition of people globally, yet face increasing pressures from human activities that put those benefits at risk. To anticipate the future of the world's ocean, we review the many human activities that impose pressures on marine species and ecosystems, evaluating their impacts on marine life, the degree of scientific uncertainty in those assessments, and the expected trajectory over the next few decades. We highlight that fundamental research should prioritize areas of high potential impact and greater uncertainty about ecosystem vulnerability, such as emerging fisheries, organic chemical pollution, seabed mining, and the interactions of cumulative pressures, and deprioritize research on areas that demonstrate little impact or are well understood, such as plastic pollution and ship strikes to marine fauna. There remains hope for a productive and sustainable future ocean, but the window of opportunity for action is closing.

中文翻译：

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预测世界海洋的未来


海洋在全球人民的生活、经济、文化和营养中发挥着至关重要的作用，但人类活动面临着越来越大的压力，使这些好处面临风险。为了预测世界海洋的未来，我们回顾了对海洋物种和生态系统造成压力的许多人类活动，评估了它们对海洋生物的影响、这些评估中的科学不确定性程度以及未来几十年的预期轨迹。我们强调，基础研究应优先考虑潜在影响较大且生态系统脆弱性不确定性较大的领域，例如新兴渔业、有机化学污染、海底采矿以及累积压力的相互作用，并优先考虑影响不大或影响良好的领域理解，例如塑料污染和船舶对海洋动物的撞击。人们仍然对未来海洋的生产力和可持续发展抱有希望，但采取行动的机会之窗正在关闭。