This study examines the conditional capital surplus and shortfall dynamics of renewable and non-renewable resource firms. To this end, this study uses the systemic risk index by Brownlees and Engle (2017) and considers two conditional systemic events, namely, a stock market crash and a commodity price crash. The results indicate that generally, companies in the resource sector tend to have conditional capital shortfall before 2000 and conditional capital surplus after 2000 owing to the boom of the commodity sector stocks and moderate capital structure management adopted by these companies. This finding is especially valid for resource firms in developed countries, whose observations dominate the dataset used in this study. Furthermore, the analysis using the panel vector autoregressive model indicates a positive influence of commodity price and geopolitical uncertainties on the conditional capital shortfall. These uncertainties have also been proven to increase the conditional failure probability of resource firms in the sample. Lastly, the performance analysis shows that potential capital shortfall is positively related to market returns, reflecting a high-risk high-return trade-off for the resource sector.

本研究考察了可再生和不可再生资源公司的条件资本盈余和短缺动态。为此，本研究使用了 Brownlees 和 Engle (2017) 的系统性风险指数，并考虑了两个有条件的系统性事件，即股市崩盘和商品价格崩盘。结果表明，由于大宗商品行业股票的繁荣和这些公司采取的适度的资本结构管理，资源行业的公司一般在2000年之前倾向于出现条件性资本短缺和2000年之后存在条件性资本盈余。这一发现对于发达国家的资源公司尤其有效，这些公司的观察结果主导了本研究中使用的数据集。此外，使用面板向量自回归模型的分析表明，商品价格和地缘政治不确定性对有条件的资本短缺有积极影响。这些不确定性也被证明会增加样本中资源公司的条件失败概率。最后，业绩分析显示，潜在资金缺口与市场回报正相关，反映了资源板块高风险高回报的权衡。