Background

Among the more than 400,000 children in foster care, there is a small group who will run away from care and face increased risks of negative outcomes. Previous studies on the predictors of running away from care use limited samples or outdated data.

Objective

The present study replicates and extends prior research by presenting an updated analysis of predictors of running away from foster care as well as 10-year trends in the prevalence and predictors of running from care.

Participants and setting

This study uses the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS) data to assess the runaway status of 597,911 children who were involved in foster care in 2019. Longitudinal trend analyses utilize AFCARS data from 2010 to 2019.

Method

Using chi-square/t-tests and binary logistic regression analyses, this study investigates individual- and case-level predictors of running away from foster care programs.

Results

Findings show that girls (OR = 1.29, p < .001), African American children (OR = 1.89, p < .001), and older children (OR = 1.61, p < .001) are at increased risk of running away from foster care. Removal reasons such as child substance abuse (OR = 1.65, p < .001), abandonment (OR = 1.38, p < .001), and child behavioral problems (OR = 1.31, p < .001) are also associated with an increased risk. Analysis of 10-year trends shows a steady decline in running from care: 1.40% in 2010 to 0.98% in 2019. The profile of risk factors is stable overall, with a few notable exceptions.

Conclusions

The percent of children running from foster care is at a 10-year low. Prevention and intervention efforts regarding running from care must focus on the needs of African American and Hispanic children, especially girls, as well as children with substance use or behavior problems. Given that programs rarely have prospective information regarding why children leave care and the negative consequences of labeling children as “runaways,” shifting language to “missing from care” should be considered.

中文翻译：

---

对美国逃离寄养的预测因素和十年（2010-2019）趋势的最新研究

背景

在 400,000 多名寄养儿童中，有一小部分人将逃离照料并面临更大的负面结果风险。先前关于逃避护理的预测因素的研究使用有限的样本或过时的数据。

客观的

本研究通过对逃离寄养的预测因素以及 10 年的流行趋势和逃离照顾的预测因素进行更新分析，复制并扩展了先前的研究。

参与者和设置

本研究使用收养和寄养分析和报告系统 (AFCARS) 数据来评估 2019 年参与寄养的 597,911 名儿童的失控状况。纵向趋势分析利用 2010 年至 2019 年的 AFCARS 数据。

方法

使用卡方/ t检验和二元逻辑回归分析，本研究调查了逃离寄养计划的个人和案例水平的预测因素。

结果

研究结果表明，女孩 (OR = 1.29, p  < .001)、非裔美国儿童 (OR = 1.89, p  < .001) 和年龄较大的儿童 (OR = 1.61, p < .001)寄养。诸如儿童药物滥用 (OR = 1.65, p  < .001)、遗弃 (OR = 1.38, p < .001) 和儿童行为问题 (OR = 1.31, p < .001) 等移除原因也与增加的风险。对 10 年趋势的分析显示，出院率稳步下降：从 2010 年的 1.40% 下降到 2019 年的 0.98%。风险因素的概况总体上是稳定的，但有一些值得注意的例外。

结论

脱离寄养儿童的百分比处于 10 年来的最低点。关于逃离护理的预防和干预工作必须关注非裔美国人和西班牙裔儿童的需求，尤其是女孩，以及有药物使用或行为问题的儿童。鉴于项目很少有关于儿童离开护理的原因以及将儿童标记为“离家出走”的负面后果的前瞻性信息，应考虑将语言转换为“失去护理”。