This paper investigates whether and how the initiation of Credit Default Swaps (CDS) trading affects analyst forecast optimism. First, we document that the initiation of CDS trading curbs analyst forecasts optimism. Second, we find that the dampening effect of CDS on analyst optimism is stronger for firms with negative news and for firms with poorer financial performance or higher leverage, supporting a “correction effect” of CDS on non-strategic optimism. Moreover, we find that CDS also has a “disciplining effect” on strategic optimism that arises from incentives to cultivate relation with management or to please institutional investors. Overall, our evidence shows that the CDS market not only provides important information for analysts, but also alters analysts’ reporting incentives and enhances their objectivity. Additional analysis shows that this effect has disappeared after the Dodd-Frank Act.

本文调查了信用违约掉期 (CDS) 交易的启动是否以及如何影响分析师的预测乐观度。首先，我们记录了 CDS 交易的启动抑制了分析师预测的乐观情绪。其次，我们发现 CDS 对分析师乐观情绪的抑制作用对于有负面消息的公司以及财务业绩较差或杠杆率较高的公司来说更强，这支持了 CDS 对非战略乐观情绪的“修正效应”。此外，我们发现 CDS 对战略乐观情绪也有“约束作用”，这种乐观情绪源于培养与管理层的关系或取悦机构投资者的动机。总体而言，我们的证据表明，CDS 市场不仅为分析师提供了重要信息，而且还改变了分析师的报告动机并提高了他们的客观性。