Talik formation has long been acknowledged as an important mechanism of permafrost degradation. Currently, a lack of in situ observations has left a critical gap in our understanding of how ongoing climate change may influence future sub-aerial talik formation in areas unaffected by water bodies or wildfire. Here we present in situ ground temperature measurements from undisturbed sub-aerial sites across the discontinuous permafrost zone of Alaska between 1999 and 2020. We find that novel taliks formed at 24 sites across the region, with widespread initiation occurring during the winter of 2018 due to higher air temperatures and above-average snowfall insulating the soil. Future projections under a high emissions scenario show that by 2030, talik formation will initiate across up to 70% of the discontinuous permafrost zone, regardless of snow conditions. By 2090, talik in areas of black spruce forest, and warmer ecosystems, may reach a thickness of 12 m. The establishment of widespread sub-aerial taliks has major implications for permafrost thaw, thermokarst development, carbon cycling, hydrological connectivity and engineering.

塔利克的形成长期以来一直被认为是多年冻土退化的重要机制。目前，由于缺乏现场观测，我们无法理解持续的气候变化如何影响未来未受水体或野火影响的地区的空中塔利克形成。在这里，我们展示了 1999 年至 2020 年间在阿拉斯加不连续的永久冻土带上未受干扰的地下地点的原位地面温度测量结果。我们发现，在该地区的 24 个地点形成了新的塔利克斯，由于在 2018 年冬季发生了广泛的开始，更高的气温和高于平均水平的降雪使土壤绝缘。高排放情景下的未来预测显示，到 2030 年，塔利克的形成将在高达 70% 的不连续永久冻土区开始，无论雪况如何。到 2090 年，黑云杉林和较温暖的生态系统地区的 talik 厚度可能达到 12 m。建立广泛的水下塔利克斯对永久冻土融化、热岩溶发育、碳循环、水文连通性和工程具有重大意义。