This paper studies the economic implications of the circular economy and recycling activities from a macroeconomic perspective. The paper incorporates the circular economy into an otherwise standard neoclassical dynamic general equilibrium linear economy model, in which the production function depends on capital, labor, and raw materials. Raw materials are a composite of natural resources (the linear economy) and recycled material (the circular economy). Waste is a function of consumption but can be incorporated back into production activities through recycling. We find the existence of a positive S-shaped relationship between the optimal recycling rate and economic development, indicating that increasing the circularity of the economy is a necessary condition to augment social welfare in a growing economy. The optimal recycling rate depends positively on the pollution damage and waste content of final consumption goods. Simulation of the model supports the existence of a steady-state Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) relationship between the stock of waste and the output in the presence of a circular economy. Finally, we find that while a permanent improvement in recycling technology has positive effects on output, expanding the circularity of the economy, an increase in the cost of natural material has harmful effects on output, increasing waste accumulation and reducing recycling.

本文从宏观经济角度研究循环经济和循环经济活动的经济意义。本文将循环经济融入到一个标准的新古典动态一般均衡线性经济模型中，其中生产函数取决于资本、劳动力和原材料。原材料是自然资源（线性经济）和回收材料（循环经济）的组合。废物是消费的函数，但可以通过回收重新纳入生产活动。我们发现最优回收率与经济发展之间存在正 S 型关系，这表明提高经济循环性是在经济增长中增加社会福利的必要条件。最佳回收率正向取决于最终消费品的污染损害和废物含量。该模型的模拟支持在存在循环经济的情况下，废物存量与产出之间存在稳态环境库兹涅茨曲线 (EKC) 关系。最后，我们发现，虽然回收技术的永久改进对产出产生积极影响，扩大了经济的循环性，但天然材料成本的增加对产出产生了有害影响，增加了废物积累并减少了回收利用。