Risk neutral valuation determines no arbitrage values for financial or real assets, including ones that are exposed to energy price risk. It is always uniquely associated with a hedging strategy if and only if markets are complete, which is the exception in theory and never the case in practice. We apply quadratic hedging, which is both conceptually simple and partially analytically tractable, in a nonstandard fashion to approximately offset the change in the value of an asset obtained from using any chosen risk neutral measure when markets are incomplete. Consistency between valuation and hedging conditional on this value is thus ensured. Achieving this goal with standard quadratic hedging requires employing the so called variance optimal martingale measure for valuation, which can be problematic in general because this measure can fail to be a risk neutral one. Heuristics that rely on a complete market assumption are compatible with the proposed conditional quadratic hedging approach. Simple examples suggest that such techniques can perform near optimally. The methodology put forth therein applies to fully risk neutral valuation of assets with cash flows that depend on both market and private risks, reducing to quadratic hedging if markets are partially complete, which we show provides a novel justification for this valuation strategy in this case. It can be extended beyond the single and fixed-date cash flow purview of this research.

风险中性估值确定金融或实物资产（包括面临能源价格风险的资产）没有套利价值。当且仅当市场完整时，它总是与对冲策略唯一相关联，这在理论上是例外，而在实践中从未如此。我们以非标准方式应用二次对冲，它在概念上简单且部分分析易于处理，以近似抵消在市场不完整时使用任何选择的风险中性度量获得的资产价值变化。因此，确保了以该值为条件的估值和套期保值之间的一致性。使用标准二次套期保值实现这一目标需要采用所谓的方差最优鞅度量进行估值，这通常是有问题的，因为该措施可能无法成为风险中性的措施。依赖于完整市场假设的启发式方法与提议的条件二次对冲方法兼容。简单的例子表明，这些技术可以实现近乎最佳的性能。其中提出的方法适用于对现金流量取决于市场和私人风险的资产进行完全风险中性估值，如果市场部分完整，则减少为二次对冲，我们表明在这种情况下为这种估值策略提供了新的理由。它可以扩展到本研究的单一和固定日期现金流范围之外。简单的例子表明，这些技术可以实现近乎最佳的性能。其中提出的方法适用于对现金流量取决于市场和私人风险的资产进行完全风险中性估值，如果市场部分完整，则减少为二次对冲，我们表明在这种情况下为这种估值策略提供了新的理由。它可以扩展到本研究的单一和固定日期现金流范围之外。简单的例子表明，这些技术可以实现近乎最佳的性能。其中提出的方法适用于对现金流量取决于市场和私人风险的资产进行完全风险中性估值，如果市场部分完整，则减少为二次对冲，我们表明在这种情况下为这种估值策略提供了新的理由。它可以扩展到本研究的单一和固定日期现金流范围之外。