Official poverty estimates for the United States are presented annually, based on a family unit's annual resources, and reported with a considerable lag. This study introduces a framework to produce monthly estimates of the Supplemental Poverty Measure and official poverty measure, based on a family unit's monthly income, and with a two-week lag. We argue that a shorter accounting period and more timely estimates of poverty better account for intra-year income volatility and better inform the public of current economic conditions. Our framework uses two versions of the Current Population Survey to estimate monthly poverty while accounting for changes in policy, demographic composition, and labor market characteristics. Validation tests demonstrate that our monthly poverty estimates closely align with observed trends in the Survey of Income & Program Participation from 2004 to 2016 and trends in hardship during the COVID-19 pandemic. We apply the framework to measure trends in monthly poverty from January 1994 through September 2021. Monthly poverty rates generally declined in the 1990s, increased throughout the 2000s, and declined after the Great Recession through the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within-year variation in monthly poverty rates, however, has generally increased. Among families with children, within-year variation in monthly poverty rates is comparable to between-year variation, largely due to the average family with children receiving 37 percent of its annual income transfers in a single month through one-time tax credit payments. Moving forward, researchers can apply our framework to produce monthly poverty rates whenever more timely estimates are desired.

中文翻译：

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估计美国的每月贫困率

美国的官方贫困估计数每年都会根据一个家庭单位的年度资源进行公布，而且报告时有相当大的滞后性。本研究引入了一个框架，可根据家庭单位的月收入和两周的滞后时间来生成补充贫困衡量标准和官方贫困衡量标准的月度估计值。我们认为，较短的会计期和更及时的贫困估计可以更好地解释年内收入波动，并更好地让公众了解当前的经济状况。我们的框架使用当前人口调查的两个版本来估计每月贫困，同时考虑政策、人口构成和劳动力市场特征的变化。验证测试表明，我们的每月贫困估计与 2004 年至 2016 年收入和计划参与调查中观察到的趋势以及 COVID-19 大流行期间的困难趋势密切一致。我们应用该框架来衡量从 1994 年 1 月到 2021 年 9 月的月度贫困率趋势。月度贫困率在 1990 年代普遍下降，在整个 2000 年代上升，并在大萧条之后通过 COVID-19 大流行开始下降。然而，每月贫困率的年内变化普遍增加。在有孩子的家庭中，每月贫困率的年内变化与年际变化相当，这主要是因为有孩子的家庭平均在一个月内通过一次性税收抵免支付获得了 37% 的年收入转移。