We evaluate the impact of government-mandated proof of vaccination requirements for access to public venues and non-essential businesses on COVID-19 vaccine uptake. We find that the announcement of a mandate is associated with a rapid and significant surge in new vaccinations (a more than 60% increase in weekly first doses), using the variation in the timing of these measures across Canadian provinces in a difference-in-differences approach. Time-series analysis for each province and for France, Italy and Germany corroborates this finding. Counterfactual simulations using our estimates suggest the following cumulative gains in the vaccination rate among the eligible population (age 12 and over) as of 31 October 2021: up to 5 percentage points (p.p.) (90% confidence interval, 3.9–5.8) for Canadian provinces, adding up to 979,000 (425,000–1,266,000) first doses in total for Canada (5 to 13 weeks after the provincial mandate announcements); 8 p.p. (4.3–11) for France (16 weeks post-announcement); 12 p.p. (5–15) for Italy (14 weeks post-announcement) and 4.7 p.p. (4.1–5.1) for Germany (11 weeks post-announcement).

我们评估了政府强制要求进入公共场所和非必要企业的疫苗接种证明对 COVID-19 疫苗接种的影响。我们发现，强制令的宣布与新疫苗接种的迅速而显着的激增有关（每周首剂疫苗接种量增加了 60% 以上），利用加拿大各省采取这些措施的时间差异，差异方法。对每个省以及法国、意大利和德国的时间序列分析证实了这一发现。使用我们的估计进行的反事实模拟表明，截至 2021 年 10 月 31 日，符合条件的人群（12 岁及以上）的疫苗接种率累计增长如下：加拿大人最多增加 5 个百分点 (pp)（90% 置信区间，3.9-5.8）各省，加拿大总共接种了 979,000 剂（425,000-1,266,000 剂）第一剂疫苗（在省级强制要求宣布后 5 至 13 周）；法国 8 页 (4.3–11)（发布后 16 周）；意大利为 12 页 (5–15)（发布后 14 周），德国为 4.7 页 (4.1–5.1)（发布后 11 周）。