We label the degree to which individuals are more optimistic at long horizons relative to short horizons as the horizon bias. We examine whether time-series variation in the horizon bias can explain the time-series variation in the equity term structure. We use analyst earnings forecasts to measure the degree of the horizon bias in the stock market. Consistent with the intuition from a stylized present value model, we find that periods of above-average horizon bias are associated with negative term premiums, whereas periods of below-average horizon bias are associated with positive term premiums.

中文翻译：

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地平线偏差和股票收益的期限结构

我们将个人在长期视野中相对于短期视野更乐观的程度标记为视野偏差。我们研究了视野偏差的时间序列变化是否可以解释股权期限结构的时间序列变化。我们使用分析师的盈利预测来衡量股票市场的视野偏差程度。与程式化现值模型的直觉一致，我们发现高于平均水平偏差的时期与负期限溢价相关，而低于平均水平偏差的时期与正期限溢价相关。