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Future water levels of the Great Lakes under 1.5 °C to 3 °C warmer climates
Journal of Great Lakes Research ( IF 2.2 ) Pub Date : 2022-05-30 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jglr.2022.05.012
Frank Seglenieks , André Temgoua

With the many different interests that are connected to the water levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes, the future of these water levels are of great concern to many people, businesses, and institutions. Projected future lake levels were calculated using data from the North American component of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment. The final lake level results are presented in relation to a 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3.0 °C change in global mean temperature. The results show that the range of possible values grows as the climate changes, with more extreme values for the lake levels becoming possible with greater changes in the global mean temperature. This increase in the range on both the high and low end may be a more important consideration than any general increase in the average water level for those living around the lakes Because the most severe impacts on the interests around the lake are usually associated with these extreme high or low levels. A greater understanding that the extremes in water levels observed in the past may be exceeded under a changing climate will help in the planning of future developments and activities within the Great Lakes basin with a forward looking coastal risk assessment and help communites build resilience to future extremes.



中文翻译:

在 1.5 °C 至 3 °C 温暖气候下,五大湖的未来水位

由于与劳伦森五大湖的水位相关的许多不同的利益,这些水位的未来是许多人、企业和机构非常关心的问题。预测的未来湖泊水位是使用协调区域缩减实验的北美部分的数据计算的。最终湖水位结果与全球平均温度变化 1.5 °C、2.0 °C、2.5 °C 和 3.0 °C 相关。结果表明,可能值的范围随着气候变化而扩大,随着全球平均温度的更大变化,湖泊水位的极端值变得可能。对于居住在湖泊周围的人来说,高低端范围的增加可能比平均水位的任何普遍增加更重要,因为对湖泊周围利益的最严重影响通常与这些极端情况有关高或低水平。更好地了解过去观察到的极端水位在气候变化下可能会被超过,这将有助于通过前瞻性的沿海风险评估来规划五大湖流域内的未来发展和活动,并帮助社区建立对未来极端事件的抵御能力.

更新日期:2022-05-30
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