Sea level rise (SLR) and saltwater intrusion are driving inland shifts in coastal ecosystems. Here, we make high-resolution (1 m) predictions of land conversion under future SLR scenarios in 81 watersheds surrounding Chesapeake Bay, United States, a hotspot for accelerated SLR and saltwater intrusion. We find that 1050–3748 km² of marsh could be created by 2100, largely at the expense of forested wetlands. Predicted marsh migration exceeds total current tidal marsh area and is ~ 4× greater than historical observations. Anthropogenic land use in marsh migration areas is concentrated within a few watersheds and minimally impacts calculated metrics of marsh resilience. Despite regional marsh area maintenance, local ecosystem service replacement within vulnerable watersheds remains uncertain. However, our work suggests that topography rather than land use drives spatial variability in wetland vulnerability regionally, and that rural land conversion is needed to compensate for extensive areal losses on heavily developed coasts globally.

中文翻译：

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切萨皮克湾地区由地形而非人为限制决定的沼泽迁移潜力的变化

海平面上升 (SLR) 和海水入侵正在推动沿海生态系统的内陆变化。在这里，我们对美国切萨皮克湾周围 81 个流域的未来 SLR 情景下的土地转换进行了高分辨率 (1 m) 预测，这是加速 SLR 和盐水入侵的热点。我们发现 1050–3748 km ²到 2100 年可能会形成沼泽，主要是以森林湿地为代价。预测的沼泽迁移超过了当前潮汐沼泽的总面积，比历史观测值大约 4 倍。沼泽迁移区的人为土地利用集中在几个流域内，对计算的沼泽恢复力指标的影响最小。尽管区域沼泽区进行了维护，但脆弱流域内的当地生态系统服务替代仍然不确定。然而，我们的工作表明，地形而不是土地利用驱动了区域湿地脆弱性的空间变异性，并且需要农村土地转换来补偿全球高度发达海岸的广泛面积损失。