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All Peacekeeping is Local: Measuring Subnational Variation in Peacekeeping Effectiveness
International Studies Quarterly ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2022-05-10 , DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqac010
Bryce W Reeder 1 , Michael Hendricks 2 , Edward Goldring 3
Affiliation  

Understanding whether peacekeepers reduce fatalities at the local level is an important question. We can have increased confidence in peacekeepers’ capabilities by testing whether deaths decrease in the locations where peacekeepers are present. However, commonly used modeling techniques cannot easily test peacekeepers’ local effectiveness. Coefficients from methods such as linear regression, logit, and count models provide average estimates of peacekeepers’ effects on violence. We argue that a solution lies in geographically weighted regression (GWR). GWR can more clearly reveal subnational spatial heterogeneity in peacekeepers’ (in)effectiveness at reducing violence. We conduct an illustrative test of our argument using data on the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 2001 and 2014 and replicate an existing study to show that GWR can also help resolve seemingly contradictory findings of whether peacekeepers are better at reducing violence by government or rebel actors. The article contains important implications for how scholars can more accurately measure peacekeeping effectiveness.

中文翻译:

所有维和都是地方性的:衡量维和有效性的地方差异

了解维和人员是否会减少地方一级的死亡人数是一个重要问题。通过测试维和人员所在地区的死亡人数是否减少,我们可以增强对维和人员能力的信心。然而,常用的建模技术无法轻易测试维和人员的局部效能。线性回归、logit 和计数模型等方法的系数提供了维和人员对暴力影响的平均估计值。我们认为解决方案在于地理加权回归(GWR)。GWR 可以更清楚地揭示维和人员在减少暴力方面(无效)的地方空间异质性。我们使用 2001 年至 2014 年间关于刚果民主共和国的数据对我们的论点进行了说明性测试,并复制了一项现有研究,以表明 GWR 还可以帮助解决看似矛盾的发现,即维和人员是否更擅长减少政府或反叛分子的暴力行为. 这篇文章对学者们如何更准确地衡量维和有效性具有重要意义。
更新日期:2022-05-10
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