This study simulates the future impact of land use and land cover (LULC) change and the enforcement of policy bundles on the multi-functionality of tropical forest landscapes. It focusses on the Northern Ecuadorian Amazonas (NEA) which is characterised by high biodiversity and endemism but at the same time is threatened by deforestation and unsustainable land use practices. Scenario simulations mimic LULC change during 2016–2030 at canton-level (area: 2,146 km²) combining explorative with policy-screening components. Scenarios NATIONAL^(+)POLICY, NATIONAL^(-)POLICY, REGIONAL^(+)POLICY, and REGIONAL^(-)POLICY are contrasted by varying deforestation trends (high regional demand for agricultural products vs. national-level structural transformations) and the enforcement/ non-enforcement of policy bundles on forest protection, reforestation and restoration. An indicator-based impact assessment analysed in a spatially-explicit fashion for each scenario in 2030 (i) the evolution of agricultural and forestry-related LULC change trajectories, (ii) future hotspots of deforestation, (iii) remaining forest core zones (FCZ) as key element of habitat integrity, and (iv) the provisioning of long-term carbon sinks. Key findings reveal that only NATIONAL^(+)POLICY, as the combination of enforced policy bundles and simulated national LULC change trend extrapolating the long-term reference period 1990–2016, lead to an expansion of forest areas and a 2% carbon stock gain in 2030 compared to 2016. When assuming a linear continuation of this trend, it requires 96 years to reach a similar carbon stock level compared to the reference year 1990. Farm area expansion will continue to affect protected forests in case of scenarios NATIONAL^(-)POLICY and REGIONAL^(-)POLICY but will be avoided in NATIONAL^(+)POLICY and REGIONAL^(+)POLICY. The simulated persistence of many farming areas reveals that the likelihood to reforest existing agricultural patches will be rather low. Against expectations, scenario NATIONAL^(+)POLICY which assumes net zero deforestation by 2030 led to a high level of FCZ fragmentation contrasting its carbon sink potential (27,971 Mio. Mg ha⁻¹) which performed best among all scenarios. Our study depicts a mismatch of future LULC change realities compared to the anticipated future achievements of the Ecuadorian land use policy framework. The simulated variability of forest change patterns (deforestation, reforestation) and farming trajectories (diversification, intensification, rotation) further suggests to foster more cross-sectoral policy approaches that acknowledges the hybrid role of local stakeholders who can be farmers and forest users at the same time. Our study shows that focusing on preserving carbon stocks and their long-term climate mitigation potential only while neglecting other important ecosystem functions or biodiversity can be a short-sighted policy goal if not accompanied by rural development programmes. We further conclude that scenario-based assessments should become an integral part of multi-stakeholder interactions across relevant levels of decision-making. This can support long-term sustainable land use management which is not only relevant for the case of the Northern Ecuadorian Amazons region but for many other landscapes in transition.

本研究模拟了土地利用和土地覆盖 (LULC) 变化的未来影响以及政策捆绑对热带森林景观多功能性的执行。它侧重于厄瓜多尔北部亚马孙地区 (NEA)，该地区具有高度的生物多样性和特有性，但同时受到森林砍伐和不可持续的土地使用做法的威胁。情景模拟模拟了 2016 年至 2030 年期间州级（面积：2,146 平方公里）的 LULC 变化，将探索性与政策筛选相结合。情景 国家^{(+) 政策}、国家^{(-) 政策}、地区^{(+) 政策}和地区^{(-) 政策}不同的毁林趋势（区域对农产品的高需求与国家层面的结构转型）和森林保护、重新造林和恢复政策捆绑的执行/不执行形成鲜明对比。基于指标的影响评估以空间明确的方式分析 2030 年每种情景（i）与农业和林业相关的 LULC 变化轨迹的演变，（ii）未来的森林砍伐热点，（iii）剩余的森林核心区（FCZ） ) 作为栖息地完整性的关键要素，以及 (iv) 提供长期碳汇。主要调查结果表明，只有国家^{(+) 政策}，由于实施的政策组合和模拟的国家 LULC 变化趋势相结合，推断出 1990-2016 年的长期参考期，导致 2030 年森林面积扩大，碳储量比 2016 年增加 2%。假设线性延续根据这一趋势，与参考年 1990 年相比，需要 96 年才能达到类似的碳储量水平。在国家^{（-）政策}和区域^{（-）政策}情景的情况下，农场面积扩张将继续影响受保护的森林，但将被避免在国家^{(+) 政策}和地区^{(+) 政策}. 许多农业区的模拟持续性表明，重新造林现有农业区的可能性将相当低。^{与预期相反，假设到 2030 年净砍伐森林为零的国家（+）政策}情景导致 FCZ 高度分裂，与其碳汇潜力（27,971 Mio. Mg ha ^-1) 在所有场景中表现最好。我们的研究描述了未来 LULC 变化现实与厄瓜多尔土地使用政策框架的预期未来成就的不匹配。森林变化模式（砍伐森林、重新造林）和耕作轨迹（多样化、集约化、轮作）的模拟可变性进一步表明，应促进更多的跨部门政策方法，承认可以同时成为农民和森林使用者的当地利益相关者的混合作用时间。我们的研究表明，如果没有农村发展计划，只关注保护碳储量及其长期气候减缓潜力而忽视其他重要的生态系统功能或生物多样性可能是一个短视的政策目标。我们进一步得出结论，基于情景的评估应该成为跨相关决策级别的多方利益相关者互动的一个组成部分。这可以支持长期可持续的土地利用管理，这不仅与厄瓜多尔北部亚马逊地区的情况有关，而且与许多其他转型中的景观有关。