Abstract

Understanding the hydrological processes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is increasingly important as the snow resources feed the demand for freshwater for a vast downstream population. Given the limited information available, the task of formulating a hydrological model that characterises future streamflow at downstream locations is challenging. A flexible conceptual hydrological model is proposed relating snow cover fraction (SCF) and snow water equivalent (SWE) relationship based on remote sensing data with the aim of characterising flow in the region into the future where temperature profiles will be considerably warmer than present. The model’s novelty lies in its ability to simulate dynamically varying SCF, SWE, and streamflow using limited available data. Results show that NSE of modelled SCF, SWE and streamflow are 0.82, 0.66 and 0.75 respectively in the calibration period (1981 to 1992) whereas 0.78, 0.56 and 0.70 respectively in the validation period (1993 to 2000).

摘要

了解青藏高原 (TP) 的水文过程变得越来越重要，因为雪资源满足了大量下游人口对淡水的需求。鉴于可用信息有限，制定表征下游位置未来流量的水文模型的任务具有挑战性。提出了一个灵活的概念水文模型，该模型基于遥感数据将积雪分数（SCF）和雪水当量（SWE）关系联系起来，目的是描述该地区未来温度剖面将比现在高得多的流量。该模型的新颖之处在于它能够使用有限的可用数据来模拟动态变化的 SCF、SWE 和水流。结果表明，建模的 SCF、SWE 和水流的 NSE 分别为 0.82、0.66 和 0。