Context

Irrigated agriculture is critical to feeding a growing global population. Irrigation contributes 30% of agricultural gross value in Australia, but water scarcity and the volatility of Australia’s open water market are significant challenges.

Objective

In this paper we advance a context-specific, system-based approach that aims to identify financially feasible irrigation designs and decision making, with the goal to increase water productivity, whole-farm profitability, and risk management.

Methods

We use a new analytical framework that combines crop simulation, discounted cash flow, system profit gap, probability theory and risk aversion analysis to quantify economic risk and compare 16 adaptation scenarios in an irrigated broadacre farm of the Riverina region in Australia. The scenarios result from the factorial of four agronomic systems (Baseline/Current, Diversified, Intensified, Simplified) and four irrigation methods − including surface irrigation by gravity (Flood) and by pumps (Pipe & Riser), pressurised irrigation by overhead spray (Pivot) and micro-dosing (Drip).

Results and conclusions

A system profit gap of ~$10 M was quantified for the irrigated farm area over 30 years. Relative to the Baseline – flood-irrigated wheat-canola − significant long-term profit gains were identified for the Intensified (mean 273%) and Diversified (mean 80%) scenarios. Current and Simplified scenarios were less profitable than the Baseline (mean −16% and −37%, respectively). The benefits of intensification were accrued from large gains in crop gross margins − especially cotton yields − that consistently offset the set-up costs and additional water use. Diversification was superior in mitigating economic risk due to higher returns per ML of irrigated water and more diverse sources of income. Under the assumptions in our study, agronomic system had greater relative influence on financial performance than irrigation infrastructure.

Significance

We demonstrated the potential to inform investment decisions from improving our understanding of trade-offs between profits and risks in the face of high climate variability, market volatility and Australia’s open water market.

中文翻译：

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农业和农场基础设施改造以管理澳大利亚灌溉广亩系统的经济风险：案例研究

语境

灌溉农业对于养活不断增长的全球人口至关重要。灌溉占澳大利亚农业总价值的 30%，但水资源短缺和澳大利亚开放水域市场的波动性是重大挑战。

客观的

在本文中，我们提出了一种针对具体情况、基于系统的方法，旨在确定经济上可行的灌溉设计和决策，以提高水生产率、整个农场的盈利能力和风险管理。

方法

我们使用一个新的分析框架，结合作物模拟、贴现现金流、系统利润差距、概率论和风险规避分析来量化经济风险，并比较澳大利亚 Riverina 地区灌溉广亩农场的 16 种适应情景。这些情景由四种农艺系统（基线/当前、多样化、强化、简化）和四种灌溉方法的阶乘产生 - 包括通过重力（洪水）和泵（管道和立管）进行地表灌溉，通过顶喷加压灌溉（枢轴） ) 和微量给药 ( Drip )。

结果和结论

30 多年来，灌溉农场区域的系统利润差距约为 1000 万美元。相对于基线——洪水灌溉小麦-油菜——在强化（平均 273%）和多样化（平均 80%）情景中确定了显着的长期利润增长。当前和简化方案的利润低于基线（分别平均为 -16% 和 -37%）。集约化的好处来自于作物毛利率的大幅增长——尤其是棉花产量——不断抵消设置成本和额外的用水量。由于每毫升灌溉水的更高回报和更多样化的收入来源，多样化在减轻经济风险方面具有优势。根据我们研究的假设，农艺系统对财务绩效的相对影响大于灌溉基础设施。

意义

面对高度的气候变化、市场波动和澳大利亚的开放水域市场，我们展示了通过提高我们对利润和风险之间权衡的理解来为投资决策提供信息的潜力。