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Modelling snowpack stability from simulated snow stratigraphy: Summary and implementation examples
Cold Regions Science and Technology ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2022-05-23 , DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2022.103596
Léo Viallon-Galinier , Pascal Hagenmuller , Benjamin Reuter , Nicolas Eckert

Information on snowpack stability, i.e., on the propensity for failure initiation and crack propagation in a weak layer, is essential for forecasting snow avalanches. To complement field observations, snow cover modelling provides information otherwise unavailable on the present and future state of the snow cover, and can be used to evaluate snowpack stability. The main goal of this paper is to summarize the broad spectrum of models to assess snowpack stability from simulated snow profiles. The basic mechanical concepts behind these stability models include: the maximum stress criterion which characterizes the failure initiation propensity and the critical crack length to evaluate the crack propagation propensity. However, many subtle differences between models, mainly due to additional expert rules or the effective implementation of the concepts, can be confusing. We try to disentangle this diversity in this summary. We discuss the differences and also present an overview of the mechanical parameterizations of snow material properties such as strength or stiffness as they are a key ingredient for stability modelling. In addition, we apply the stability models to typical and simplified snow profiles in order to illustrate the influence of the underlying assumptions and the model sensitivity to the mechanical input. As we point out scientific challenges and model limitations, the examples we discussed can provide guidance on the interpretation of similar model results. Moreover, we draw some guiding lines for future research concerning snowpack stability assessment based on snow cover modelling.



中文翻译:

从模拟积雪地层建模积雪稳定性:总结和实施示例

关于积雪稳定性的信息,即关于在薄弱层中失效萌生和裂纹扩展的倾向,对于预测雪崩至关重要。为了补充实地观察,积雪建模提供了有关积雪当前和未来状态的其他信息,并且可用于评估积雪稳定性。本文的主要目标是总结从模拟雪剖面评估积雪稳定性的广泛模型。这些稳定性模型背后的基本力学概念包括:表征失效起始倾向的最大应力准则和评估裂纹扩展倾向的临界裂纹长度。然而,模型之间的许多细微差别,主要是由于额外的专家规则或概念的有效实施,可能会令人困惑。我们试图在本摘要中解开这种多样性。我们讨论了这些差异,并概述了雪材料特性的机械参数化,例如强度或刚度,因为它们是稳定性建模的关键要素。此外,我们将稳定性模型应用于典型和简化的雪剖面,以说明基本假设的影响和模型对机械输入的敏感性。当我们指出科学挑战和模型限制时,我们讨论的示例可以为类似模型结果的解释提供指导。此外,我们为未来基于积雪建模的积雪稳定性评估研究绘制了一些指导方针。我们讨论了这些差异,并概述了雪材料特性的机械参数化,例如强度或刚度,因为它们是稳定性建模的关键要素。此外,我们将稳定性模型应用于典型和简化的雪剖面,以说明基本假设的影响和模型对机械输入的敏感性。当我们指出科学挑战和模型限制时,我们讨论的示例可以为类似模型结果的解释提供指导。此外,我们为未来基于积雪建模的积雪稳定性评估研究绘制了一些指导方针。我们讨论了这些差异,并概述了雪材料特性的机械参数化,例如强度或刚度,因为它们是稳定性建模的关键要素。此外,我们将稳定性模型应用于典型和简化的雪剖面,以说明基本假设的影响和模型对机械输入的敏感性。当我们指出科学挑战和模型限制时,我们讨论的示例可以为类似模型结果的解释提供指导。此外,我们为未来基于积雪建模的积雪稳定性评估研究绘制了一些指导方针。

更新日期:2022-05-23
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